Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W south-southwestward to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 03N35W to 03N40W and to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 15W and 25W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A cold front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to 28N90W where it continues as a stationary front to southern Texas near 27N98W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas follow the front. Moderate winds or less and 2 to 4 ft seas are over the remainder of the basin, except in the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida where seas are less than 3 ft.

For the forecast, the front will reach from the Straits of Florida to the central Gulf by early Sun where it will fully stall and weaken, with its remnants lifting back N as a warm front through Sun night. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate for the start of next week, with another front or trough possibly impacting the western Gulf Mon night. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the period. Moderate to fresh SE winds will dominate the western Gulf late this weekend, then the eastern Gulf early next week.

Caribbean Sea

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean and maintains moderate trade winds over most of the basin, with the exception of fresh to strong east to southeast winds over the outer portions of the Gulf of Honduras and off the north coast of Venezuela. Seas are slight to moderate across the basin, with peak seas to 6 ft across the Gulf of Honduras.

Stable atmospheric conditions under a broad anticyclone aloft prevail across most of the basin west of 75W, except in the far southwestern part of the sea where scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted. This is where the eastern segment of the east Pacific monsoon trough exists. Similar activity is over some sections of Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the basin will support fresh to strong winds near the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh winds in the south-central and in the southeastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the weekend. The pressure gradient will tighten early next week, with fresh to strong trades in the south-central and northwestern Caribbean, and moderate to fresh elsewhere. Seas will build next week as a result of the increasing winds. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across most of the NW Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front from 31N70W to near Fort Pierce, Florida has fresh to strong SW winds N of 27N ahead of it to 65W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 26N between 68W and the northern Bahamas.

Elsewhere, rather weak high pressure is the main feature that is driving the general wind flow pattern across the discussion domain. The high pressure is anchored by a 1028 mb high north of the area at 35N30W. ASCAT data depicts mainly moderate E winds south of 15N and west of 40W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft, with lighter winds north of 15N. East of 40W, moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail, except north of 18N and east of 20W to the coast of Africa where fresh northerly winds are noted.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will reach from 31N64W to near the Florida Keys early Sun, then from 31N59W to the central Bahamas early Sun, dissipating from 27N55W to 23N70W early Tue. High pressure will build in behind the front for the start of next week. Fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas are forecast offshore N Florida by mid-week ahead of another possible cold front.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mora