HOUSTON – Democrats had hoped to flip Texas from red to blue on election night. Yet despite efforts to do so, the party fell short of its own expectations. From the presidential race to the Senate, and a push to net a majority in Texas' Republican-dominated state legislature, Democrats conceded Wednesday they underperformed in some races. Still, the party claimed victory in making further progress toward its goal of realigning political power in the Lone Star State.
“While we achieved some goals in this election and came up short on others, we have marched forward in Texas," said Gilberto Hinojosa, chair of the Texas Democratic Party, in a written statement. “We just had the best presidential margin in decades and made inroads statewide -- registering, persuading and mobilizing over 1 million more Democratic votes than the last presidential election.”
The statement also seemed to walk back previously-deemed high enthusiasm over the prospects of a power shift.
“In Texas, we declared to be the biggest battleground, not the biggest blue state," Hinojosa said. “Being a battleground state means we can take nothing for granted. It means fighting like hell on many fronts at once. We are proud to be in this fight alongside countless great Democrats and progressives in this push to make history.”
The fight included a plan to take control of Texas' House. Democrats needed to gain nine seats in order to do that. They did not.
“In terms of the State House races, I thought they would be more competitive if you were looking at the trends and demographics,” said Michael Adams, Ph.D., a political scientist at Texas Southern University.
Adams said while changing demography might suggest an advantage for Democrats, Tuesday’s elections confirmed the party needs to refocus how it campaigns in communities of color. In particular, he cites President Donald Trump’s success among Latino voters along the border as a prime example of a missed opportunity.
“That’s something in terms of coming together as a party, and within the party, they have to look at the leadership and go back and do some type of self-assessment or analysis in terms of what went wrong,” Adams said. He added that the party should place more emphasis on redistricting to combat gerrymandering, as part of its approach.
Brandon Rottinghaus, Ph.D., a political scientist at the University of Houston, said Republicans' success at the ballot box is due, in part, to lessons they learned following the 2018 midterm election, in which Democrats won big at the local, state and national levels.
“I don’t view this as a failure for the Democrats," Rottinghaus said. "I view it as a success for the Republicans.”
“I think they really invested in the ground game," Rottinghaus added. "That was a major factor. That happened early on. It also happened late, so, even in the time of COVID, where there were all of these restrictions, Republicans were really first to get back on the ground and I think that gave them a head start.”
Both Rottinghaus and Adams said Democrats campaigned on the ground too late, including an eleventh-hour campaign stop from the Democratic vice presidential nominee, Sen. Kamala Harris.
Analysts said that despite Democrats performing well in closing the gap, they just couldn’t close it any farther.
“I think Democrats were looking for successes in these suburban districts where they had made major gains in 2018," Rottinghaus said. "It might be just that it is the height of the crest of the wave -- there’s not much more to be able to find there.”