Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 06N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N24W to 02N35W to the north coast of Brazil at 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 39W and 50.5W.

Gulf Of America

A trough is analyzed from just offshore Texas near 28N97W to just inland Mexico at 18N94W. High pressure of 1019 mb is analyzed in the NW Gulf offshore Texas at 27N94.5W. Winds are mainly gentle to locally moderate in anticyclonic flow across the basin. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range N of 25N, and 3-6 ft range S of 26N in residual N-NE swell.

For the forecast, moderate or lighter winds will prevail across the basin through early this morning. The next cold front will move into the Gulf later today and tonight. The front will shift quickly southeast of the basin by Thu evening, and will be followed by increasing winds and building seas. Conditions will improve Thu night into the weekend. A reinforcing surge of fresh to strong northerly winds may impact the basin late in the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

Broad ridging NE of the basin and 1010 mb low pressure over northern Colombian near 08.5N75.5W supports fresh to strong NE-E winds in the S-central Caribbean and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere in the central Caribbean S of 20N, with seas of 5-8 ft, highest near the N coast of Colombia. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the basin, locally fresh near the Windward Passage., with seas in the 3-6 ft range.

For the forecast, pulsing of fresh to strong winds offshore of NW Colombia will diminish by Thu, then return this weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail through tonight. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Thu, stall from E Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing winds and building seas across the basin.

Atlantic Ocean

A stationary front extends from 31N57W to the Central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida at 24N80W. Some scattered moderate convection is noted on satellite imagery N of 27N between 56W and 61W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker W of a line from 31N53W to Puerto Rico, except locally fresh near the Windward Passage. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range W of 70W in N-NE swell, and 5-7 ft between 55W and 70W. Moderate to fresh, locally strong trades are noted S of 28N and E of 45W, where seas are 7-11 ft in mixed swell. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere with 5-7 ft seas in mixed swells.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from 31N62W to the central Bahamas and western Cuba will gradually dissipate early today. A pre-frontal trough will emerge off the coast of NE Florida later this morning and quickly move eastward, accompanied by fresh to strong winds with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 27N. The next cold front will enter the NW waters by Thu morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force Thu night east of the front and N of 29N. A reinforcing front may impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky