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Special Features

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A 996 mb low pressure system located offshore the North Carolina coast will shift eastward through tonight, dragging a cold front across the western Atlantic waters. The front currently extends from the low through 31N73W across the NW Bahamas to the north coast of Cuba along 80W. Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed gale-force S-SW within 60 nm east of the front, and north of 28N, and gale-force westerly winds offshore of Florida north of 29N. As the front shifts eastward through Wed, strong to gale-force SW winds are expected within 120 nm E of the front and N of 28N, accompanied by strong thunderstorms. Strong to near gale-force W to NW winds and very rough seas to near 18 ft are expected behind the front and N of 27N. The front will reach from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Tue evening, from 31N59W to the Windward Passage by Wed morning, and from 31N51W to the N coast of Hispaniola by Thu morning. The low will lift out to the northeast by mid week, as the front weakens while moving east of the area, with a trailing portion of the front stalling across the coastal waters of Puerto Rico early Fri before dissipating.

Please refer to the latest Atlantic High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFFAT2.shmtl for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15.5W and continues southwestward to 00N21W. The ITCZ extends from 00N21W to the coast of Brazil near 01.5S45W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted south of 05N and east of 20W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from south of 05N and between 20W and 51W.

Gulf Of America

The frontal boundary that moved across the basin during the past 24 hours has moved into the NW Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds continue across the western Florida coastal waters from Tampa Bay to the Florida Keys. Recent buoy observations indicate that seas are still 7-9 ft from offshore of Tampa Bay to the Yucatan Channel. A 1020 mb high pressure system is over the NW Gulf, bringing dry continental air across the Gulf waters. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish across the SE Gulf this morning as a cold front moves farther SE into the NW Caribbean. High pressure over the NW Gulf will slide eastward across the northern Gulf through Thu. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas developing across most of the basin Fri through Fri night, ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Sat, and weaken from near SE Louisiana to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Sat evening.

Caribbean Sea

A weakening cold front extends from west-central Cuba to the north-central coast of Honduras. Scattered showers are occurring within 90 nm behind the boundary, and also across eastern Cuba. Overnight satellite scatterometer data indicated that fresh to strong northerly winds were occurring behind the front. Seas behind the front are 4-8 ft, highest in the Yucatan Channel. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between a 1020 mb high pressure system in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South America result in fresh to strong easterly winds in the south- central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and slight to moderate seas are present in the north- central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the front in the NW basin will move SE and reach from east-central Cuba to central Honduras by Tue evening, and from northern Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras by Wed evening before dissipating. Expect fresh N winds and moderate seas behind the front through late Tue morning. Otherwise, weak high pressure N of the area will support moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds offshore of northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela most of the week. Winds there will pulse to fresh to strong speeds at night Thu into the weekend. Fresh to strong SE to S winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras and NW Caribbean Fri night through Sat as strong high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning that has been issued for Atlantic waters offshore the SE United States.

A cold front extends from a deepening low pressure off the coast of North Carolina to west-central Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near and ahead of the front north of 26N. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong cyclonic winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, across the southern half of the low pressure circulation, with gale-force westerly winds offshore of northern Florida, and along and east of the front N of 28N. Seas are quickly building within this area of winds, with recent buoy observations showing seas of 12 to 16 ft north of 27N. Farther east, a surface trough enters the basin near 31N34W and continues southwestward to 22N60W. Moderate to strong cyclonic winds are evident north of 24N and between 25N and 48W. Seas in the area described are 8-12 ft. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate to fresh NE-E winds south of 20N and seas of 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure located offshore the North Carolina coast will shift eastward today, dragging a cold front across the western Atlantic waters. Strong to gale-force SW winds are expected through Wed morning within 120 nm E of the front and N of 26N, accompanied by strong thunderstorms. Strong to gale-force W to NW winds and very rough seas are expected behind the front and N of 26N through Wed. The front will reach from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Tue evening, from 31N59W to the Windward Passage by Wed morning, and from 31N51W to the N coast of Hispaniola by Thu morning. The low will lift out to the northeast by mid week, as the front weakens while moving east of the area, with a trailing portion of the front stalling across the coastal waters of Puerto Rico early Fri before dissipating. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east through late week as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front.

Posted 59 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling