Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW waters later this morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas will accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force ahead and behind the front N of 29N by this evening. A reinforcing front may impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend, bringing strong to near gale force winds and rough seas.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico. The front is followed by fresh to near gale-force NW to N winds and rough seas per recent buoy and platform observations, and earlier ASCAT scatterometer data, along with building and rough seas. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected across the coastal waters of the NE Gulf, particularly between Apalachicola, FL and Mobile, AL through much of today. Conditions will improve across the Gulf region Thu night into the weekend. A reinforcing surge of fresh to strong northerly winds may impact the basin late in the weekend, potentially developing northerly gale-force winds near Tampico and Veracruz on Sun.

Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then runs southwestward to 08N15W. The ITCZ extends from 04N12W to 02N30W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted on conventional satellite imagery from 00N to 02N between 14W and 20W, and from 01.5N to 04N between 21W and 26.5W.

Gulf Of America

A Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force is in effect for the coastal waters of the NE Gulf. Please, read the Special Features section for more details.

As mentioned, a cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico. The front is followed by fresh to near gale-force NW to N winds and rough seas per recent buoy and platform observations, and earlier ASCAT scatterometer data, along with building and rough seas. Multilayer clouds, with possible showers, are noted over most of the Gulf waters and Florida. Mainly moderate SW-W winds with a pre-frontal trough are noted across the remainder of the basin ahead of the front.

For the forecast, a cold front from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico will move rapidly across the basin, shifting southeast of the area by this evening. The front is followed by increasing winds and building seas. Conditions will improve from NW to SE tonight into the weekend. A reinforcing front and surge of fresh to strong northerly winds may impact the basin this weekend.

Caribbean Sea

Fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean early this morning, along with 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the remainder of the east and central parts of the basin S of 20N. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas dominate the western Caribbean, except in the far NW Caribbean where a pre-frontal trough reaches from the western tip of Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras with moderate NW winds to the W of it. Some shower activity is observed near the trough. Elsewhere, patches of low level moisture, with possible showers, prevail.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong winds offshore of NW Colombia early this morning, then return Fri night through the weekend and into early next week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail through early today, except moderate to fresh across the remainder of the central Caribbean S of 20N. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean later today, stall from E Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing winds and building seas across the basin, while a reinforcing front and surge of winds also arrives in the NW Caribbean by early Mon.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning.

A cold front extends from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida where it has stalled, with fresh to strong winds on either side N of 27N and W of 68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up near this boundary. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N and W of 68W, along with locally rough seas, mainly N of 30N.

High pressure dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic forecast region. Under the influence of this system, an area of fresh to strong NE winds is noted from 12N to 26N and E of 35W to the coast of W Africa, including near the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are within these winds. Moderate to locally fresh trades are observed across the tropical Atlantic with moderate to rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds and mainly moderate seas are elsewhere. An upper-level low in the central Atlantic near 23N38W is triggering some shower activity, while moist southerly flow in the wake of a warm front now well N of 31N supports additional shower activity N of 27N between 46W and 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a reinforcing front will move off Florida later this morning and merge with the leading front, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force Thu night east of the front and N of 29N. Another cold front may impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky