Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W, then curves southwestward to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues westward from 07N17W to 00N27W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04S to 08N between 04W and 17W and from 04S to 06N between 20W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1030 mb high centered offshore North Carolina. Recent scatterometer data show moderate to locally fresh SE winds E of 90W while a tighter pressure gradient in the western half of the basin is supporting fresh to locally strong SE winds. Altimeter and SOFAR buoy data indicate 3-5 ft seas over the eastern half of the Gulf while buoy and oil rigs platforms are reporting 7-8 ft seas W of 90W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche through this weekend as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE winds will spread across much of the basin as the pressure gradient increases between low pressure over the Southern Plains and high pressure E of Florida. Seas will also build through the weekend. Conditions will gradually improve next week as the pressure gradient relaxes.

Caribbean Sea

A trade-wind pattern continues across the entire Caribbean Basin. High pressure building off North Carolina is supporting the continuation of fresh to strong NE to ENE winds in the central basin and the Windward Passage. Seas in the Windward Passage peak to 6 ft while off Colombia seas are 7-9 ft. In the NW Caribbean, fresh NE to E winds dominate along with 5-7 ft seas. Scatterometer data show gentle to moderate trades elsewhere, except for locally fresh S winds E of a surface trough moving across the Virgin Islands.

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the basin will support fresh to strong NE winds across the central and western Caribbean through early next week, including the Windward Passage and south of Cuba. Near-gale force winds will pulse off Colombia during the overnight hours, accompanied by rough seas. Large northerly swell will impact the Mona and Anegada passages in the northeastern Caribbean by Sun. Winds and seas will diminish starting Tue night as the high pressure north of the area weakens.

Atlantic Ocean

A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda to 26N70W. Ahead of the front, there are two surface troughs between 57W and 66W, which are supporting scattered showers and tstms. Surface ridging building behind these boundaries is supporting fresh to strong N E winds extending W of the front to about 76W where seas are 5-9 ft. A broad surface ridge centered by a 1031 mb high SW of the Azores, covers the remainder subtropical waters and extends deep to the tropics. A weakening cold front is just NW of the Canary Islands, extending from 30N19W to 27N30W to 28N37W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-9 ft seas are across these waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will continue to weaken while drifting S today as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. A tightening pressure gradient between these two features will support increasing strong NE to E winds and rough seas this weekend from the Bahamas to the Greater Antilles. Winds and seas will slowly diminish west of 65W early next week. A complex low pressure system may develop in the central Atlantic this weekend, producing fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas surrounding the low, east of 65W.

Posted 50 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos