Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W and continues southwestward to 02N20W, where the ITCZ begins and continues to 01N50W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 03N east of 50W.

Gulf Of America

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered in the east-central Gulf near 26N86W. A trough is over the Yucatan Channel. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds off the west coast of the Yucatan Channel with 3-5 ft seas, and gentle to moderate southerly breezes and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the east-central Gulf will maintain mostly moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf through the middle of the week. A trough over the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf will support occasional moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night through the middle of the week.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front extends from the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic to south of Haiti. A few showers are likely occurring just ahead of the front near Puerto Rico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds across and downwind the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba with 5-7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere over the western Caribbean. Light breezes and 1-3 ft seas are evident over the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the front will continue to move eastward across the far northeast Caribbean. Building high pressure following the front over the western Atlantic will support moderate to locally strong NE winds south of Cuba, the Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola through Mon. As the high pressure moves slightly eastward, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will develop offshore Colombia Mon through Thu, mainly at night.

Atlantic Ocean

A slow moving cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda near 31N61W to the eastern tip of Hispaniola, which is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms within 90 nm ahead of the front north of 25N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated winds to gale force ahead of the front near 29N62W, but this was likely a short-lived event associated with thunderstorms active in this region. The upper dynamics are lifting to the northeast, and this thunderstorm activity is starting to taper off. The scatterometer pass also indicated fresh to strong winds following the front with strong to near-gale force SW winds ahead of the front north of 25N between 50W and 65W. Sofar buoys and an recent altimeter satellite passes showed 7 to 11 ft seas in this area as well. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere north of 22N and west of 50W. Broad ridging covers the Atlantic south of 31N and west of 25W, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds in this area. Farther east, a 996 mb low pressure area continues to move between Madeira and the Canary Islands, supporting fresh to strong N winds north of 25N and east of 25W, and moderate N winds south of 25N and east of 25W. Seas are 10-14 ft north of 25N and east of 25W, and 7-10 ft elsewhere east of 50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, Fresh to strong winds and rough seas on either side of the front, mainly north of 25N, will continue to affect the offshore waters from west to east through tonight as the front continues to move eastward. This system is forecast to reach from 31N55W to Virgin Islands by this evening, then will move into the central Atlantic Mon through Tue while gradually dissipating. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very seas. These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters north of 27N into the middle of the next week before starting to diminish Wed night as the front lifts northward.

Posted 1 hour, 50 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Christensen