Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from Mauritania/Senegal border near 16N16W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from 04N25W to the coast of Brazil near 02N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 11W and 43W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the western Gulf. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are found in the central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevailing elsewhere west of 86W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area. In the rest of the Gulf, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure extends across the basin. An inverted trough may develop over the western Gulf early this week where it may linger through at least mid-week. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are expected across the northern Gulf over the next few days. Mainly moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, pulsing to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

Caribbean Sea

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin, sustaining moderate easterly trade winds over most of the basin. The exception is the Gulf of Honduras, where strong to near gale E-SE winds are currently pulsing with seas to 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the south-central Caribbean with seas to 7 ft. Seas are slight to moderate across the rest of the basin. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean along the monsoon trough, S of 11N.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support strong to near gale E to SE winds near the Gulf of Honduras through most of the week. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the south- central basin through Wed, where winds will decrease to moderate to fresh through the later part of the week. Seas will build through the week as a result of the increasing winds. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through most of the week. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across some areas of the northwestern Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak cold front extends from 31N61W to 28N63W then stalls from that point to the South Florida coast near 26N80W. A pre- frontal trough is analyzed from 28N56W to 22N67W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 20N and between 52W and 66W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted near the front mainly north of 28N and between 58W and 68W. Seas in these waters are 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere west of 50W, while moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail east of 50W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad 1030 mb high pressure system centered to the west of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and relatively lower pressures in northwest Africa result in fresh to strong northerly winds north of 15N and east of 22W. Seas in the area described are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will weaken as it reaches from near 31N58W the Central Bahamas today, then dissipating from near 27N55W to 22N65W by early Tue. High pressure will build in its wake. Fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas are forecast offshore N Florida by Tue ahead of another possible cold front. That front may reach from near 31N76W to 27N80W by early Thu, weakening and stalling from 31N69W to near Fort Pierce, Florida by early Fri. Conditions around the front will improve by Fri.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Areinhart