Special Features

Tropical Depression Joyce

The center of Tropical Depression Joyce, at 30/0300 UTC, is close to 22.3N 47.5W. Joyce is moving toward the NW, or 310 degrees 05 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within: 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and 30 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea height value is 13 feet. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 21N to 24N between 46W and 51W. Fresh winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 17N to 27N between 38W and 50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, and the OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php, for more information. Please, visit www.hurricanes.gov, for the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory, and the Public Advisory, about JOYCE.

Tropical Depression Twelve

The center of Tropical Depression Twelve, at 30/0300 UTC, is close to 13.9N 33.2W. TWELVE is moving toward the west, or 280 degrees 06 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Expect for the next 12 hours or so: winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in E swell, from 15N to 18N between 35W and 37W. Fresh winds are in the remainder of the area from 05N to 27N between 26W and 38W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 06N to 18N between 23W and 42W. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, and the Offshore Waters Forecast, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more information. Visit the website, www.hurricanes.gov, for more details, for the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory.

Tropical Waves

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 260 nm to the west of the tropical wave, and between Africa and the tropical wave. Upper level winds are forecast to become more conducive, for the gradual development of this system, during the next few days. It is possible that a tropical depression may form during the middle or the latter part of this week. The system is forecast to move slowly toward the W or WNW in the eastern sections of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Please, refer to the website, www.nhc.gov/cyclones/, for details.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The GFS model for 250 mb is showing that anticyclonic wind flow is between 55W and 64W; cyclonic wind flow is between 64W and the Windward Passage; anticyclonic wind flow is in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 09.5N in NW Venezuela to 13N between 70W and 74W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea from the Mona Passage westward. The monsoon trough is passing through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is in the coastal plains of southern Mexico between 92W and 96W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 26N southward. This is for the Western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: the environmental conditions appear to be conducive for the gradual development of the tropical wave. It is possible that a tropical depression may form around the middle part of this week. The weather system is forecast to move slowly toward the WNW, and then toward the NW, and into the Gulf of Mexico, during the latter part of this week. Anyone who has interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and along the U.S.A. Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. Please, refer to the website, www.nhc.gov/cyclones/, for details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W, to 12N24W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the areas that are from 20N southward from 60W eastward.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section, for details about the 81W/82W Caribbean Sea tropical wave, and the possible development into a tropical cyclone with respect to this weather feature.

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1016 mb 29N72W high pressure center, to 28N82W in Florida, to 28N91W.

Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, are in the Gulf of Mexico. An exception is for fresh northerly winds from 21N southward from 93W westward.

Moderate to fresh winds will pulse near Veracruz nightly through Mon, potentially increasing to strong by Tue night through midweek. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and slight seas will prevail across the basin into midweek. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas Wed into Thu over the western Gulf due to low pressure forming across the Bay of Campeche.

Caribbean Sea

Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section, for details about the 81W/82W Caribbean Sea tropical wave, and the possible development into a tropical cyclone with respect to this weather feature. The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, through Nicaragua, and into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

Moderate or slower winds, and mostly slight to some moderate seas, are in the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 30/0000 UTC, are: 0.30 in Curacao, and 0.02 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A broad area of low pressure is along a tropical wave located over the western Caribbean Sea with axis near 81W. This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. This system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of this week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin through Fri.

Atlantic Ocean

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Joyce, and for the 19W/20W tropical wave.

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 29N72W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the Atlantic Ocean from Tropical Storm Joyce westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 28N northward from 77W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 40W eastward. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 32N28W. A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 36N16W.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 30/0000 UTC, are: 0.15 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 20N northward from 25W eastward. Broad fresh cyclonic wind flow is from 05N southward between 34W and the coast of South America. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 67W eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 67W westward.

Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through mid week. Looking ahead, NW swell to 8 ft will impact the waters south of Bermuda to 29N late Thu into Fri. The main impacts associated with T.D. Twelve will remain east of 55W, but 8 to 10 ft NE swell will reach as far west as 60W Fri.

Posted 18 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Mt/Gr