The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is now forecasting tight conditions on the grid, as we get closer to the winter freeze next week.
ERCOT provides a six-day forecast for supply and demand of its load capacity. The forecast is updating every 10 minutes.
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During a weather event, less than 2500 megawatts of reserve power is a concern for ERCOT. It will trigger alerts.
Currently, ERCOT is forecasting 259 megawatts of reserve on Jan. 16 at 8 a.m.
The dashboard has timestamps so that you can see when the information was last updated.
This forecast was posted on Jan. 12 at 3:40 p.m.
EMERGENCY LEVEL ONE
When the operating reserves drop below 2,500 megawatts and are not expected to recover within 30 minutes, ERCOT would issue an emergency level one alert, meaning there is a risk of controlled outages.
EMERGENCY LEVEL TWO
Another number to watch for is 2,000 megawatts... anything less would trigger an energy emergency level 2, which means ERCOT could reduce demand on the system by interrupting power from large industrial customers who’ve contractually agreed to have their electricity turned off during an emergency.
EMERGENCY LEVEL THREE
When reserves drop below 1,500 megawatts, that would take us to an emergency level 3, and we would be looking at controlled, rotating outages. More prolonged outages may also be necessary to balance supply and demand on the grid.
ERCOT’s all-time record demand was 85,508 MW on Aug. 10, 2023. Now, it’s predicting record demand on January 16, 2024 at 8 a.m. ERCOT is forecasting for 87,499 MW.
ERCOT: TCEQ NO AIR PERMIT LIMITATIONS
To ensure as much power as possible is available, ERCOT has requested that the TCEQ, not penalize or fine power providers that exceed air permits, during this arctic weather.
“ERCOT anticipates high system demand beginning Sunday, January 14, 2024 due to extremely cold temperatures across the ERCOT Region. To ensure as much generation as possible is available to serve system demand, ERCOT has requested that the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) exercise its enforcement discretion with respect to generator exceedances of TCEQ air permit limitations. TCEQ has communicated to ERCOT that it will use its enforcement discretion in evaluating generation facility exceedances of emission and operational permit limits to maximize generation availability. Unless TCEQ provides notice otherwise, TCEQ’s enforcement discretion will apply beginning at 12:01 a.m. on Sunday, January 14, 2024 and ending at 12:00 p.m. (noon) on Wednesday, January 17, 2024.”
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