HOUSTON – All eyes were on the ERCOT grid as a winter storm continues to hit Texas.
ERCOT issued a conservation appeal from 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. Tuesday.
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The conservation appeal ended at 9 a.m. as scheduled, therefore the current ‘grid conditions meter’ returned to green, from the yellow color code.
Conditions were forecasted to get tight around 8 a.m.
However, around 7 a.m. ERCOT revised its forecast. The difference between forecasted available capacity and forecasted demand was approximately 4,400 megawatts.
By 8 a.m. reserves exceeded 5.000 mw.
Earlier in the morning the difference was forecasted between 2,000 - 2,400 mw.
When reserves get below 2,500 megawatts, that triggers different emergency conditions.
People were waking up, turning on their lights, turning up the heat, but the solar power that helps the grid wouldn’t kick in until after 8 a.m..
As of 5 a.m. the grid was in ‘green.’
The current ‘grid conditions meter’ was color-coded with green indicating normal conditions.
At 6 a.m. as we anticipated the meter changed to yellow, not because of a supply and demand concern. But because the conservation appeal went into effect starting at 6 a.m..
Then as anticipated the grid conditions meter returned to green status.
ACTUAL VS. FORECAST
Monday, ERCOT also forecasted tight conditions at 8 a.m. however, the actual demand versus the forecast demand was off by 10,000 megawatts. Customers used 10,000 megawatts less than forecasted.
We’re seeing a similar trend on Tuesday.
7:30 a.m.
As of 7:30 a.m. customers are using 3862 mw less energy than forecasted. Supply is now 999 mw higher than forecasted. Additionally, ERCOT has revised its forecast for 8 a.m. The difference between supply and demand is now forecasted to be approximately 4,400 mw.
6:45 a.m.
As of 6:45 a.m. customers are using 2079 mw less energy than forecasted. Supply is 2403 mw higher than forecasted. Even though the forecast is for only 2,400 mw available, there would be an extra 4,480 mw online if this trend continues.
5:45 a.m.
Currently, as of 5:45 a.m. customers are using about 1,000 mw less of forecasted energy.
And the supply forecast versus actual supply is off by +1,454 mw. There is more supply available to the grid than forecasted.
