Houston’s hail threat increases for Thursday; Here’s what we know

HOUSTON – After a few quiet days, thunderstorms are expected to return to the Houston area on Thursday.

Just like last week, we will potentially have to deal with heavy rains and gusty winds. Unfortunately, we may also have to deal with more hail.

Here is what we know.

Storm threat Thursday

The severe weather threat for Thursday has been bumped up from a level 1 marginal risk to a level 2 slight risk. The risk is mainly for the threat of large hail.

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The areas with the greatest risk of seeing a stronger thunderstorm capable of producing hail and other severe hazards will be from Houston to the west. Places such as Lake Jackson, Wharton, Victoria, up to Austin will have the greatest chances of seeing severe weather. Don’t get too hung up on the colors on the map above though. Anywhere in either the yellow or green will have a risk of seeing strong thunderstorms, although the greatest risk will be in the yellow shaded regions.

Some showers and storms may be ongoing around daybreak Thursday. Some of the early storms could bring some severe risk with them.

As we progress through the day, thunderstorms will persist, but perhaps a break in the rain in the early afternoon before more storms develop in the evening. Some of these storms could become strong and have the capability of producing hail and strong winds. The tornado threat is very low, but not completely zero.

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By the overnight hours Thursday into Friday, models depict a complex of storms moving out of the Texas Hill Country and into the Houston area. Some of these storms will have the potential to be strong as well with hail and gusty winds being the main threats.

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Rainfall totals will generally be around an inch or lower. Areas to the north of Houston may see up to two inches. This matches the area where computer models are showing a complex of storms moving through into the overnight hours Thursday and into Friday. If this model plays out, areas that see that complex of storms may see increased rainfall totals.

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Overall, here is what you need to be aware of for Thursday.

• Strong to severe storms are possible in southeast Texas starting tomorrow morning and into the overnight hours, perhaps with a break in the rain by mid-afternoon.
• Hail and gusty winds will be the primary threat, although a tornado cannot be completely ruled out.
• Rainfall totals will depend on where a complex of storms sets up for Thursday night into Friday morning. Most areas should see an inch or less of rainfall. Anyone who sees a complex of storms move through may be dealing with two inches or more of rainfall.

See severe weather in your area? If you can safely do so, submit your photos to Click2Pins.