HOUSTON – Many parts of the state of Texas will be experiencing widespread cloud cover come Monday.
While that is very unfortunate and a big inconvenience for anyone trying to view the solar eclipse tomorrow, its a sign of bigger issues that the state will be experiencing over the next few days, which is the risk of both severe weather and heavy rainfall.
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While there will be a chance of strong storms Monday through Wednesday in southeast Texas, it appears that Tuesday and early Wednesday will be the times we will have to watch the closest.
Monday severe threat
While the best chance of seeing severe weather looks to be to the north of the immediate Houston metro on Monday, parts of the area are still under a level 1 marginal risk of severe weather with areas to the north such as Grimes, Walker, and San Jacinto Counties being in a level 2 slight risk. Thunderstorms look to initiate near and west of the DFW metroplex Monday afternoon, probably not long after the end of the solar eclipse between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. Those storms would move eastward carrying a risk for all severe hazards including large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a few tornadoes.
Right now, computer models show most of the storms moving well north of the Houston metro on Monday. While I believe this is likely what is going to happen, I wouldn’t take these computer models as gospel. They just show what the radar could look like at certain times. What I do know is we are going to have strong south to southeast winds pumping moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico. This will be evident by the persistent cloud cover the area will experience. As long as this moisture continues pumping northward, there is a chance storms could fire anywhere in the severe weather risk area. The risk is much greater to the north, where a piece of energy is forecasted to act as a trigger for storms, but storms are possible further south as well. This will be something we will have to watch on Tuesday as well.
Tuesday severe threat
Tuesday’s severe weather threat, in my opinion, could be a little bit complicated. A wide area of the state is under a level 2 slight risk for severe weather. All hazards would be possible with storms that fire.
Computer models for Tuesday morning want to put out a storm right over the Houston area. Clusters of storms may also be ongoing early Tuesday further west. We would have to watch which directions those storms end up moving. Any storms Tuesday would need to be watched for the potential of severe weather.
If you turn your attention to East Texas, close to the Tyler area on the map, you may notice a line of light to moderate rainfall showing up on the map. That is where a warm front should set up. This would be something that would need to be watched closely Tuesday afternoon. Typically, in a severe weather event, the most potent storms can be found near or just south of where the warm front sets up. This is usually where the greatest tornado threat can also be found.
A complicating factor for severe weather may be what is known as a ‘messy’ storm mode. This is when storms cluster or group up rather than being isolated, which can sometimes lower the severe weather threat, but doesn’t always completely eliminate it. Right now, it remains to be seen if the storm mode ends up being ‘messy,’ but several models are hinting that could be the case.
Either way, we are expecting very heavy rainfall in parts of the area from this weather event. This projected rainfall totals graphic is for Wednesday afternoon, which should be after the cold front finally moves through and pushes the wet weather out of here. You can see while the immediate Houston area could see between 1-3 inches of rain, you don’t have to go far to the north and east before you start getting projections over five inches. If this verifies, flooding could definitely be an issue.
Wednesday severe threat
Our final day of dealing with a severe weather threat will be early Wednesday as a cold front begins to push in from the west. These storms would also have the potential for all severe hazards. Thankfully, the passage of the cold front will mean an end to the rain and severe weather threat for Houston.
Models are showing a complex of storms moving through early Wednesday morning. These storms will be on the edge of the cold front and once they pass your area, your chances for severe weather and rainfall are over. The system will finally depart Texas and allow the area to dry out for a few days before our next storm system will begin to arrive and chances for storms increase for the beginning of next week.
Overview
To recap, here are some key takeaways to know for the threat over the next several days.
- The potential for both heavy rainfall and severe weather exists for southeast Texas Monday-Wednesday. Right now, it looks like Tuesday and early Wednesday will be the times with the greatest risk in the immediate Houston area.
- Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible with any storm that develops any of these days. We will have to watch and see where the greatest tornado risk sets up.
- Regardless of any severe weather, very heavy rainfall is likely for areas, especially to the north and east of the immediate Houston metro.
- Once the cold front passes on Wednesday, your threat for storms is over.