HOUSTON – After the deluge of heavy rains across the area last week, we have had a few days to calm down and dry out.
Thursday, it is pretty likely most of the area remains quiet, but a few areas, especially our northern counties, could see a severe storm or two.
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It’s not a done deal right now, but the potential is there.
Here is how it looks right now.
Thursday storm threat:
By far, the greatest threat for both severe weather, and storms in general, will be across north and central Texas. These storms will be capable of producing very large hail and damaging winds, with at least a low threat of a tornado or two.
Computer models show supercell storms breaking out in North Texas Thursday afternoon. With how unstable the atmosphere is, these storms could become quite intense with very large hail looking like the primary threat.
For the Houston-area, the threat is a little more unclear. Models want to break out more storms further south across Central Texas closer to 9 p.m. These storms would move east and have the potential of producing more severe weather. It is possible some of our northern counties, Walker, Grimes, San Jacinto, etc., could see one of these storms. This will need to be watched closely to see where exactly these storms set up as well as their trajectory as they move off to the east.
By early Friday morning, these storms will be continuing off into East Texas, according to current model guidance. The best chance for the Houston-area or our northern counties to see a storm will be between the 10 p.m. to 2 a.m. hours.
As I said, this is certainly not a done deal right now and I believe it is quite possible Houston itself sees little to nothing at all. Still, if you live in some of our northern counties, keep an eye on the weather Thursday night just in case one of these storms decides to pay you a visit.