The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories at 10 a.m. on Tropical Storm Alberto, which is currently located in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.
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A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the Texas coast from Port O‘Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande. On Tuesday, the Tropical Storm Warning was extended northward to cover areas to San Luis Pass.
4 p.m. Wednesday update from the National Hurricane Center
LOCATION...21.9N 95.3W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande * the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Tecolutla.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 95.3 West. Alberto is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), but a westward motion is expected to resume soon and continue for the next day or so. On this track, the center of Alberto is expected to reach the Gulf coast of Mexico early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible this evening or tonight before the center of Alberto reaches land. Weakening is expected once the center moves inland, and Alberto is likely to dissipate over Mexico Thursday or Thursday night. Alberto is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 415 miles (665 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Alberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Alberto, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern Mexico in areas of onshore winds north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through early Thursday.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of Deep South Texas and Southeast Texas.
SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
10 a.m. Wednesday update from the National Hurricane Center
LOCATION...22.2N 95.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning southward to Tecolutla.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Tecolutla.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 95.0 West. Alberto is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will reach the coast of northeastern Mexico early Thursday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast today or tonight before the center of Alberto reaches land. Rapid weakening is expected once the center moves inland, and Alberto is likely to dissipate over Mexico Thursday or Thursday night.
Alberto is a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 415 miles (665 km) north of the center.
The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 995 MB (29.39 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Alberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas.
Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible across the higher terrain of the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Alberto, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern Mexico in areas of onshore winds north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today through early Thursday.
TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today and tonight across parts of Deep South Texas and Southeast Texas.
SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
4 a.m. Wednesday update from the National Hurricane Center
LOCATION...22.7N 93.8W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 93.8 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A generally westward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so, and the system is forecast to reach the coast of northeastern Mexico by late tonight or early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is possible before the system reaches the coast. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
The disturbance is quite large, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) to the north of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area today.
TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible today and tonight across parts of Deep South Texas and Southeast Texas.
SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through early Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
10 p.m. Tuesday update from the National Hurricane Center:
LOCATION...22.5N 93.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande * the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 93.0 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is expected overnight and on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to reach the coast of northeastern Mexico by Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is possible during the next 36 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
The disturbance is quite large, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches) based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area overnight or Wednesday.
TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of Deep South Texas into Southeast Texas.
SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through early Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
4 p.m. Tuesday update from National Hurricane Center:
LOCATION...22.1N 92.7W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the Texas coast to San Luis Pass.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande * the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 92.7 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to reach the Gulf coast of Mexico by Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is possible during the next 36 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
The disturbance is quite large, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero S
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by tonight or Wednesday.
TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur Wednesday across parts of Deep South into southeast Texas.
SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through early Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
10 a.m. Tuesday update from National Hurricane Center:
LOCATION...21.8N 92.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * the Texas coast from Port O’Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 92.7 West. The system is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to reach the Gulf coast of Mexico by Wednesday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) north of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by tonight or Wednesday.
TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur across parts of Deep South Texas on Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through Wednesday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
7 a.m. Tuesday update from National Hurricane Center:
LOCATION...21.5N 92.8W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for
the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Puerto de Altamira to a Tropical Storm Warning.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* the Texas coast from Port O’Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande
* the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.5 North, longitude 92.8 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected is expected tonight and Wednesday, and the system is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the
center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Wednesday.
4 a.m. Tuesday update from National Hurricane Center:
LOCATION...21.3N 93.0W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Watch for the Texas coast from Port O’Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Port O’Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 93.0 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected is expected tonight and Wednesday, and the system is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the center of the system crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by Wednesday.
10 p.m. Monday update from National Hurricane Center:
LOCATION...20.8N 93.0W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 93.0 West. The system is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected Tuesday night or Wednesday, and the system is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches) based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the center of the disturbance crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday.
The next complete update from the National Hurricane Center will be at 4 a.m. Tuesday.
Here is the current information on the system from the National Hurricane Center as of 4 p.m. Monday:
LOCATION...20.3N 93.2W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 93.2 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected Tuesday night or Wednesday, and system is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the center of the disturbance crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday.
The next advisory from the National Hurricane Center will be at 10 p.m.