Hurricane Beryl continues to be a powerful and very dangerous category 4 hurricane Monday.
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It briefly weakened Sunday night into a category 3 before restrengthening on Monday.
It now has maximum sustained winds of 150 mph, just shy of that of a category 5.
It moved directly over Carriacou Island Monday and is now continuing its trek across the Caribbean.
Here is a look at the situation.
Current situation
Beryl continues to look very healthy on the satellite. Its brief weakening can be attributed to an eyewall replacement cycle, a process where a new eyewall forms and replaces the old eyewall. This typically leads to a brief weakening period before the storm strengthens again. The wind field will also increase in size once the cycle is completed.
Now that the storm is passing the Lesser Antilles, the next place in line for impacts will be the island of Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the island and Beryl will be approaching Jamaica by early Wednesday.
Beryl’s future
Beryl will continue moving across the Caribbean over the next few days.
While it will remain a hurricane, some weakening appears to be likely as Beryl encounters an area of increased windshear later this week. Weakening could also be possible should Beryl move directly over Jamaica. Regardless, Beryl will still be a hurricane capable of significant damage.
Past that, most of the models are showing a landfall on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula before Beryl will reemerge over the Bay of Campeche, most likely as a tropical storm at that point. This would be next Friday and Saturday should Beryl take this path.
What’s the threat to Texas?
While it is still too soon to give an absolute definitive answer as to whether or not Beryl will make a direct impact on Texas, there are a few things we can look at to get an idea of where the storm may ultimately end up.
Most of the models are honed in on a final landfall along the upper Mexican coastline. If this were to happen, outside of some higher than normal tides, southeast Texas and Houston itself would probably see very little impact from Beryl. However, places such as South Texas could see some much needed rainfall from Beryl.
I do want to point out one specific spaghetti model plot (TABD) that takes Beryl into southeast Texas. It is important to know that this model is a statistical model based on climatology and does not factor in current conditions and other important key features which will ultimately dictate where Beryl ends up (including our area of high pressure).
This area of high pressure will most likely be the deciding factor as to whether Texas takes a direct impact or not from Beryl. Some of the models are suggesting Beryl will take a turn to the north. Those models are suggesting a weakness in the ridge of high pressure, which would allow for that northward turn. If that were to happen, areas on the Texas coast will need to pay attention to when and where that turn takes place once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. This is not a guarantee though that the turn even happens as other models continue to take Beryl into Mexico.
Regardless, there will be no impact to Texas from Beryl for at least the next seven days.
For now, it is still a wait and see game. Regardless, Beryl will most likely be a much weaker system depending on the amount of land interaction it has, first with Jamaica, and then if it goes over the Yucatan Peninsula or into Belize. We will keep an eye on it.