HOUSTON – Hurricane Warnings have been issued for parts of the Texas coast as Tropical Storm Beryl approaches Saturday.
Beryl is forecasted to make landfall in Texas sometime on Monday.
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We have been watching the changes to the forecast over the last few days to see what the impacts will be for the Houston area.
Here are the latest updates.
Current situation
As of 10 p.m. Saturday, Beryl remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.
It is located about 300 miles southeast of Corpus Christi and is moving northwest at 13 mph. The minimum pressure is down to 993 mb.
Beryl has struggled to get organized this evening as wind shear and dry air have fought against it. This was kind of expected today though and conditions are forecasted to become more favorable tonight into tomorrow and Beryl is predicted to strengthen back into a hurricane before making landfall sometime Monday.
Hurricane Hunters have found the pressure has started to drop again, which could be a sign that Beryl is starting to enter a more favorable environment.
A turn to the north-northwest is expected Sunday night with another turn to the north expected Monday.
Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Texas coast from Baffin Bay north to Sargent. These are typically issued within 36 hours before tropical storm or hurricane conditions are forecasted to hit the area.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from Sargent to High Island.
Further inland, a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Harris, Fort Bend, Austin, Waller, Brazoria, Wharton, and Colorado counties.
In the 7 p.m. update, the Storm Surge Watch that was in effect for areas from San Luis Pass to High Island, including Galveston Bay, were upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning.
Models have begun to have more consensus on Beryl’s final destination, but I wouldn’t hold my breath since things have changed a lot over the last few days. However, we are getting closer to landfall and there are only so many things these storms can do in the timeframe there is left before it moves ashore.
Models are showing Beryl will make landfall near Matagorda Bay early Monday. Places such as Port Lavaca, Seadrift, Port O’Connor, over to Palacios and Matagorda appear to be the most likely points where a landfall could happen at this time. There is some question as to how strong it will be when it makes landfall and most models are predicting a category 1 storm with winds close to 90 mph. However, I would prepare for Beryl to possibly be as strong as a category 2 or maybe a category 3 at landfall as warmer water temperatures could mean this storm could intensify quickly.
Beryl is a fairly compact storm so if it were to wobble either to the east or to the west by 20-30 miles, it could make a big difference as to who sees the strongest winds.
For the Houston area, I would be prepared for at least tropical storm force winds by Monday morning. These are wind speeds anywhere between 39-73 miles per hour.
The Houston area will also see a lot of rain from Beryl. The good news is by all indications, Beryl will be moving at a decent pace and it doesn’t look like we will have to deal with the storm stalling. So while we will see rain and potentially a lot of it, it doesn’t look like Beryl will stall.
Because of the anticipated heavy rainfall from Beryl, a Flood Watch has been issued from the Houston area westward. The watch expires Tuesday at 7 a.m.
For the Texas coast, here is the latest guidance from the National Hurricane Center on predicted storm surge:
Mesquite Bay, TX to Sargent, TX...4-6 ft
Matagorda Bay...4-6 ft
Sargent, TX to High Island, TX...3-5 ft
N Entrance Padre Island NS, TX to Mesquite Bay, TX...3-5 ft
Corpus Christi Bay...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to N Entrance Padre Island NS, TX...2-4 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Cameron, LA...1-3 ft
As with any tropical system making landfall, isolated tornadoes will be a concern starting Sunday as Beryl’s outer bands start to approach the Texas coast. This will have to be watched carefully to see just how big the tornado threat ends up being.
Things to watch
- Based on the latest data, Beryl looks to make landfall between Rockport and Matagorda Bay. Areas as far north as Freeport and Galveston should keep an eye on it in case trends start to move it north again.
- Beryl is forecasted to intensify into a hurricane again, estimated to be a category 1 at landfall. The intensity will need to be watched closely as there is a chance Beryl could be stronger at landfall.
- Beryl is a compact storm and any wobbles in the track could significantly impact who sees the worst winds from the system.