HOUSTON – Houston, it has been dry. Like really dry.
In fact, if we don’t get any measurable rainfall before the end of the month, it will be the driest October on record for the city.
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There is a glimmer of hope that we won’t hit that and it starts on Wednesday.
Here is a breakdown of what we are expecting.
Rain this week
For Monday and Tuesday, we stay about the same. Partly cloudy skies with warm temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
Our forecast starts to change come Wednesday. Ahead of a Halloween cold front, we may start seeing some isolated showers bubble up, mainly from Houston towards the coast as southerly winds begin to pump Gulf moisture north across the area. Right now, the chance for rain is isolated on Wednesday, only 30%.
The rain chances increase to 60% on Halloween as the cold front approaches the area. Right now, we still only have long range model data to work with which shows some rain forming along the front. As we get closer, more data will come in and we can get a better idea of just how much rain we are expecting.
We aren’t expecting any severe weather in Southeast Texas right now, but further north into parts of North Texas and Oklahoma, they do have at least somewhat of a severe weather risk on Wednesday.
So far this month, there has not been any measurable rainfall for Houston. The weather station at Bush Intercontinental Airport still shows a big fat 0.00 for the month. If that stays true through Halloween, it will make October 2024 the driest October on record for Houston.
The good news is that models are showing between one and 1.5 inches of rain for parts of Southeast Texas in the next seven days. Most of that will probably fall on either Thursday or on Friday where rain chances remain decent at 50%. However, if we want to keep the dry October record away, we will need some rain to fall at IAH on Thursday.
Halloween forecast
If you plan on taking the kids out trick-or-treating, the later you go, the better chances you will stay dry on Halloween.
Right now, it appears the best chances for rain will be earlier in the afternoon and evening. By around 8-9 p.m., shower chances should start to come down based on the data we have right now. That may change, but that is how it appears to be at the moment.
Small rain chances will stick around through the weekend before bumping up again on election day next week. After next Tuesday, the temperatures will fall again thanks to another front that looks to come through. Rain chances will also go away and skies look to brighten again.