HOUSTON – With Election Day right around the corner, a new survey from the University of Houston suggests less than half of Harris County voters believe the results will be fair and accurate.
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Researchers at the UH Hobby School of Public Affairs found that 38% of Harris County likely voters are “very confident” and “somewhat confident,” respectively, that the election will be fair and accurate. However, the confidence differs based on who you ask. 88% of Kamala Harris supporters, for example, expressed confidence in a fair election, while 63% of Donald Trump voters said otherwise.
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In light of “voter fraud” and “suppression” being common buzzwords among political circles, these results didn’t seem to come as a surprise to political analyst and Rice University professor, Mark Jones.
“Because of the distrust we have in our current system”, he said during an interview with our Amy Davis on KPRC 2+ Now. “We see some real partisan splits there...part of it has to do with the issues from the 2022 election with the lack of ballot papers as well as the decision that was eventually reversed by the Harris County Commissioner’s Court to go to an elections administrator that they handpicked.”
Here is a look at some key points the poll found:
Election Confidence in Harris County
38% of Harris County’s likely voters are very confident, and 38% are somewhat confident that the 2024 presidential election will be fair and accurate in Harris County. However, confidence differs by voting preference: 88% of Kamala Harris voters express confidence in a fair election versus 63% of Trump voters.
Concerns about Voter Suppression and Election Fraud
32% of Harris County voters see voter suppression as a major problem, while 32% see it as not a problem at all.
Election fraud is considered a major issue by 32% of likely voters, with 37% seeing it as not a problem. Opinions vary significantly between voter groups, with 43% of Trump voters seeing fraud as a major issue compared to 24% of Harris voters.
Texas Election Rules
45% of Harris County voters feel the state’s voting rules are balanced, while 30% think they make it too easy and 25% feel they make it too hard.
There is a divide between Trump voters (40%) and Harris voters (23%) on whether Texas rules make it too easy to vote.
Voter ID and Voting Methods
77% of Harris County voters believe a state-approved photo ID should be required for voting, with stronger support from Trump voters (91%) than Harris voters (66%). Online registration and mail voting receive more support among Harris voters (79% and 75%) compared to Trump voters (46% and 23%).
Serious Threats to Election Security
Major threats to election security include voter suppression (54%), inadequate poll worker training (52%), and foreign interference (51%). A lack of paper for voting machines is seen as a threat by 55% of Trump voters versus 32% of Harris voters.
Obligation to Concede
74% of Harris County likely voters believe the losing candidate should accept certified results and concede, with only 10% disagreeing.
Voting Preferences
57% of voters plan to vote early in person, 10% by mail, and 31% on Election Day.
Demographics and Partisanship
Harris County likely voters are diverse: 45% White, 28% Latino, and 21% Black, with women representing 52% and men 47%.
Partisan split among likely voters is 51% Democrat, 37% Republican, and 11% Independent.
Watch the full video with Jones in the video above. See below for the full survey by the UH Hobby School for Public Affairs, or click here.
