A chance for a few stronger storms in the Houston area early Tuesday: What does election day look like?

HOUSTON – Houston, have you been enjoying the rain the last several days?

I know I certainly have and the area lakes, rivers, and bayous are loving it as well.

• Tracking the chance for thunderstorms this Sunday.

The wet pattern looks to continue into at least the first part of the week and we could be dealing with a few stronger storms early Tuesday morning as well.

Election Day could be a soggy one for many of us.

Monday

First, lets get through Monday. I expect Monday to look pretty similar to how the weekend was. Dreary, maybe a few peaks of sun with isolated to scattered showers and storms moving across the area.

Rain chances will increase the later we go into Monday with the chance peaking overnight and into the early morning hours on Tuesday as a cold front approaches the area.

• New tropical system forms in Caribbean, could pose a threat to US Gulf Coast next weekend

Severe Weather Threat

Before I go any further, I do want to mention the potential for a few storms to be on the stronger side, perhaps even becoming severe overnight Tuesday. The graphic above is the severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. It is in effect from 6 a.m. Monday until 6 a.m. Tuesday. You can see the Houston area is outlined in a level 1 marginal risk of severe weather. This means one or two storms could become severe. A greater risk for severe storms exists in Central Texas and North Texas where a level 2 slight risk and level 3 enhanced risk has been outlined in the yellow and orange.

I do want to emphasize that the different shades of colors just outlines where more severe storms are expected to be, not necessarily how strong the storms will be. So you could have storms just as strong in the green as you do in the yellow and orange, but the amount of storms is expected to be less.

That being said, we are expecting the worst of the severe threat to stay further north. However, we could see some strong gusty winds with storms that arrive with the cold front early Tuesday, perhaps some pocket-change sized hail, and while the risk is extremely low, I would never rule out the chance of a brief tornado, especially north of the immediate Houston metro.

Tuesday

Around 1 a.m., scattered storms will be around in the area as the cold front begins to push towards Houston. We will have to watch any of these storms for the potential of being on the stronger side.

As we approach the 5 a.m.- 6 a.m. timeframe, a line of storms will be approaching Harris County from the west. These storms could have gusty winds, a lot of lightning, and very heavy rain so if you are going to be headed to work during this timeframe, give yourself extra time and be alert to changing conditions.

By 9 a.m., storms will still be around in the area, albeit they look like they will be a bit less potent than earlier in the morning. It looks soggy though for many in the area so just take it slow and be careful on those wet roads.

By noon, it still looks like we will have showers and storms hanging around as the cold front tries to take its sweet time pushing out of here.

Overview

So to recap what we are expecting Monday and Tuesday:

• Monday looks similar to this weekend, dreary with a few peaks of sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around, increasing in coverage as we head into the overnight hours prior to the arrival of a cold front.
• There is a severe weather threat starting Monday afternoon, but I expect the greatest chance to see severe storms will be early Tuesday as a line of storms approaches the area from the west. Gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain will be the primary threats with the outside chance of some hail and maybe a brief tornado.
• Tuesday looks soggy for most of the day, though storms should be weaker as we go through the day as the cold front tries to push through.

We will have more data as we get closer to Tuesday so we can pinpoint a little better what to expect.