HOUSTON – After the Mexican government killed the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel over the weekend, prompting retaliation from cartel members that resulted in a shelter-in-place order being issued for Americans in certain parts of the country, KPRC 2 News is talking with an expert about what happens next.
Expert: Tony Payan, Director, Center for the U.S. and Mexico at Rice University’s Baker Institute
Who was killed in Mexico, and why does it matter?
Q: For people here, what happened over the weekend in Mexico, why does it matter or why should it matter?
A: “The Mexican army conducted the killing of a major drug trafficking capo in Mexico. Mr. Oseguera, ”El Mencho," was the leader of the most powerful cartel in Mexico, this was a cartel with presence in about 17 states in Mexico and reputedly as many as 40 countries around the world. It was a major drug trafficking cartel. It was engaged also in human trafficking. It was in engaged in human smuggling. It was engage in real estate fraud. It was engaging in extracting resources and extortion from businesses, small and large. In Mexico, it was engaged in all kinds of criminal activities ... and the very important thing that we have to consider is that they were also engaged in political campaigns and co-opting candidates, and sometimes in some municipalities, even picking the candidates.
This was a very important step by the president of Mexico because many of the members of her political coalition were engaged in criminal activities or facilitating minimally criminal activity. And so this was a really important step. I think it was something that the U.S. wanted her to do. She had resisted, but she finally did it. And so I think its important to think that this was major coup by both the U.S. and the Mexican government to finally get this guy.”
What changes might Americans see, especially around fentanyl?
Q: What could be the ripple effects here that people in Houston or in the U.S. would notice from this?
A: “The very first thing is obviously fentanyl. The availability and the price of the fentanyl in the streets, we’ve already seen a decline in the amount of fentanyl that circulates in the street in the United States. You may remember that at the peak, there were about 108,000 deaths by overdoses in the Unites States. That’s come down considerably, I think about 50%. And as fentanyl becomes more scarce in the streets in the United States, the gangs that distribute that in the street, the bars, the clubs, the parties, the apartment buildings in the United States may begin to compete for the available fentanyl. And we may see some violence in the states, very specific spots, hot spots throughout the United States, but I think that would be the most important effect.
The other one of course is that the U.S. finally convinced Mexico to confront this problem. This was a huge problem with ripple effects into the United States, and it’s a good thing that President Trump finally managed to get President Sheinbaum to act against the cartels, because they have an effect in the United States.”
Is heightened alert in Texas necessary?
Q: We know that here the governor has asked DPS to be on heightened alert and increase some certain measures because of this. Is that necessary?
A: “Obviously, anytime that there is violence in Mexico, there’s always been fear of spillover violence into Texas, into the United States. We’ve never seen that. There’s been very violent periods in Mexico when the Juarez Cartel was falling apart, when the Sinaloa Cartel were falling apart. There was a lot of violence in Mexican, and we never really saw the spillover. It’s important to be on the alert. You never know what can happen, but the likelihood that the violence will actually spill over into Texas ois really very, very small.
Mexico is a very violent country, and we haven’t seen those levels of violence in the United States. In fact, the violence and the crime in the United States have been dropping, even as it has grown in Mexico. But it doesn’t hurt to be on the alert, of course.”
Should people reconsider travel to Mexico, especially for spring break?
Q: People are already saying things feel more normal again. Is that going to last, or should people with travel plans reconsider?
A: “Those of us who have looked at this issue for a long time, we understand that this kind of highly valued target strategy, the drug kingpin strategy, going after these guys, the capos, the guys at the top, is a very questionable strategy, because nothing in the end changes in Mexico. El Chapo was extradited and Mayo Zambada was absconded from Sinaloa and ended up in the United States. Other couples have been killed and the business continues. So this is kind of a questionable strategy in many ways.
And what does happen is that then many of the lieutenants begin to fight for control of the cartel and then they create these factions so they behave like guerrillas on Mexican territory. They begin to sort of try to take over the organization and then there’s a lot violence. Or sometimes other criminal organizations try to move into the territory controlled by that particular cartel, that particular capo that was taken out, and obviously that means also more violence. So it’s never really changed. It’s always been like that. That pattern seems to prevail. And so I think we should expect that. I mean, if there isn’t a single guy that emerges as the leader of the cartel – the undisputed leader of cartel then more violence is likely to ensue.
Mexico is a major destination for expats, and also tens of millions of Americans travel to Mexico every year. They go to the beaches and the resorts and other places. And spring break is coming up in two to three weeks ... and a lot of spring breakers go to Mexico, right? At this point, I would reconsider my travel plans. I’d be very careful. If you have to go, obviously you have to go. Exercise maximum caution. Be sure to know where you’re going. Get some help to make sure that you’re guided to the right places. Keep the phone number of the embassy and the consulate at hand in case something happens. But if you don’t have to go, honestly, I would reconsider plans for spring break.”
How long could this higher‑risk period last?
Q: For how long should people be thinking about that — just spring break, or longer?
A: “It’s a little bit unpredictable, obviously. It depends on what the cartel decides to do. It also will depend on whether there emerges an undisputed leader of the cartels, in which case things will sort of achieve a new equilibrium, a new stasis, so to speak, and then things will even out. If the government continues to hammer away, trying to get the lieutenants and trying to cut the cartel down, then there’s gonna be a response by them and things might get a lot more violent.
If the cartel members believe that this is something the US is pushing, and this was clearly a joint operation, it’s already been acknowledged, then US citizens may become targets as revenge. We haven’t seen that in the past a whole lot, but it is possible.
If I were doing intelligence, if I were planning on this, I would certainly consider all the different scenarios. And I would say, don’t travel, be careful. There could be some potential retaliation on U.S. interests and persons in Mexico by the cartel specifically.”
How far do this cartel’s operations reach into Houston?
Q: In talking about this cartel specifically, what do you know about its presence in Houston, in Texas, and what should people know about that?
A: “I think one of the things that we ignore in the United States is the fact that fentanyl, for example, which is something that is trafficked into the United States quite a bit now, but it used to be the same thing with cocaine and heroin and marijuana before that. They’re pyramids.
You have to think of them as pyramids, on the one hand you’ve got the couple and the lieutenants and you’ve the different branches in Mexico that are importing the precursor chemicals, they’re doing the pills, running the labs, they’re storing the drugs in Mexico, and then they’re moving them to the border, and they cross them at the U.S.-Mexico border, then they end up in Chicago or Dallas or Houston or any other city in warehouses and safe houses and places like that. And then it moves on to U. S. citizen’s hands. Those are the people that buy it in bulk, a kilogram or two, I would say kind of the... The almost the retail level, but not quite, sort of in the middle.
And then these are the guys that do the specific dosages that you find in apartment buildings and parks and other places where drugs are sold. And so there’s a lot of participation.
If there is a scarcity of drugs in U.S. streets, as we’ve seen already in the last few months, then there may be competition and there may shootouts and people trying moving to other markets. Within the city. So we have to be very careful because these are tentacles that reach well into the distribution networks within our own cities, and we have be careful with that.”
How did U.S. pressure and trade talks push Mexico to act?
Q: Do you have anything you want to add?
A: “I think the president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, has been under enormous pressure by the Trump administration to move against the cartels. She didn’t want to. I think it was against her political instincts. But at the end of the day, I thing Trump offered both carrots and sticks. I would say the sticks is essentially the threat of ending the USMCA. Or even conducting operations without Mexico’s knowledge or consent. In other words, not necessarily boots on the ground, but you got drones, you can identify the targets so the U.S. could potentially do these sort of remote operations within Mexico. That’s the stick, that’s the threat.
I think the carrot is, look, the USMCA is currently under renegotiation. Renegotiations between the United States and Mexico began on January 28th, just about a month ago. And so far, Mexico has not been that affected by tariffs on trade. Anything within the USMCA that qualifies to enter the United States is entering the US with 0% tariffs. The U.S. could impose tariffs on Mexico. It could decide not to renew the USMCA. And so I think Sheinbaum understood very clearly that the renegotiations give the U.S. a lot of leverage to force Mexico into acting against the cartels.
And obviously, the reward, if she were to act, which she did, was a renewal of the USMCA, which is ultimately very good for Mexico. So, to me, it seems like a good strategy so far.”
Will more cartel leaders be targeted?
Q: Do you think then, while these negotiations are continuing, that we’ll see more of this, more cartel leaders being targeted?
A: “I think it’s an easy thing. I think the DEA, the FBI, those law enforcement agencies, they love getting a name and a last name. They love getting the guy. They love the extradition component of it. They love the show. What they don’t do often is think about how to tackle the organization, the structure, the culture, the social base of organized crime in Mexico, sort of a long-term, conscientious way method of building the rule of law in Mexico and getting to the entire structure and slowly dismantling the social legitimacy and the narco-culture that has prevailed in Mexico today. So, yeah, it’s good to go after the HVTs, the highly valued targets, the kingpins.
But at the end of the day, you know, this has to be a long-term plan to bring the rule-of-law in Mexico, and the U.S. has a lot to do with it and should help in that way.
Also, guns. The firepower that we saw the cartel deploy yesterday in Mexico is mostly from the United States. The grenade launchers, the guns, the high-powered guns, you know, the drones they use, the vehicles, the technology, all the stuff that they use is mostly U.S. Guns are not made in Mexico. They’re made here. 70 to 80 percent of all guns that cartels use in Mexico come from United States, and we have a very permissive gun culture.
So I think this has to be part of the negotiations and part of components of bringing the rule of law in Mexico. But obviously that affects interest in the United States because we like our guns and we don’t want to regulate guns and we want to tackle illegal guns smuggling into Mexico but that has to part of a formula.”