As the first impacts of coronavirus began in the U.S. over a year ago, many states have drawn back social distancing measures to reopen their economies and return to normalcy.
Since loosening restrictions after the pandemic forced stay-at-home orders across the country, the U.S. has experienced an increase in positive cases and hospitalizations.
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Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projected the U.S. saw its peak in daily coronavirus-related deaths on April 15, 2020. On that day, the number was 32,146.
Now, experts project the country will reach 1,229,517 virus-related deaths by January 1, 2022.
IHME previously projected the nation will suffer a total of 317,312 deaths related to COVID-19 by December 1, 2020, then made the following predictions as the situation worsened.
- 389,087 by January 1, 2021
- 399,163 by February 1, 2021
- 470,974 by March 1, 2021
- 567,195 by April 1, 2021
- 594,623 by May 1, 2021
- 574,062 by June 1, 2021
- 609,172 by July 1, 2021
- 598,882 by August 1, 2021
- 941,948 by September 1, 2021
- 960,226 by October 1, 2021
- 1,063,068 by November 1, 2021
- 1,170,232 by December 1, 2021
Projections are based on states’ easing scenarios, current masks mandates, vaccine distribution and new variant spread.
To fully account for the impact of COVID-19, IHME’s projection estimates for September and beyond include the total number of COVID-19 deaths.
Here are state-by-state projections for COVID-19 related deaths by January 1, 2022:
Alabama
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 31,647
Current projection: 32,844
Alaska
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 1,159
Current projection: 1,387
Arizona
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 36,430
Current projection: 36,429
Arkansas
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 15,754
Current projection: 15,575
California
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 138,694
Current projection: 138,007
Colorado
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 12,544
Current projection: 12,426
Connecticut
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 9,811
Current projection: 9,861
Delaware
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 4,511
Current projection: 4,507
Florida
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 81,502
Current projection: 83,225
Georgia
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 44,864
Current projection: 45,387
Hawaii
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 1,093
Current projection: 941
Idaho
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 6,217
Current projection: 7,245
Illinois
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 38,757
Current projection: 38,524
Indiana
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 23,35
Current projection: 23,472
Iowa
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 9,738
Current projection: 9,874
Kansas
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 12,657
Current projection: 12,334
Kentucky
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 24,730
Current projection: 23,461
Louisiana
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 20,073
Current projection: 20,777
Maine
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 3,012
Current projection: 2,920
Maryland
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 20,650
Current projection: 20,076
Massachusetts
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 20,126
Current projection: 19,910
Michigan
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 36,048
Current projection: 36,034
Minnesota
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 11,493
Current projection: 11,896
Mississippi
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 17,689
Current projection: 17,518
Missouri
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 23,991
Current projection: 24,792
Montana
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 3,824
Current projection: 3,973
Nebraska
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 4,886
Current projection: 4,981
Nevada
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 11,826
Current projection: 11,930
New Hampshire
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 3,926
Current projection: 3,615
New Jersey
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 33,248
Current projection: 33,212
New Mexico
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 9,033
Current projection: 9,091
New York
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 73,184
Current projection: 72,759
North Carolina
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 42,370
Current projection: 42,293
North Dakota
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 2,010
Current projection: 2,019
Ohio
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 47,063
Current projection: 47,577
Oklahoma
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 21,814
Current projection: 22,352
Oregon
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 11,004
Current projection: 10,437
Pennsylvania
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 50,371
Current projection: 50,461
Rhode Island
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 2,963
Current projection: 3,034
South Carolina
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 25,768
Current projection: 26,023
South Dakota
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 2,917
Current projection: 2,890
Tennesse
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 28,474
Current projection: 28,832
Texas
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 118,821
Current projection: 122,089
Utah
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 6,619
Current projection: 6,849
Vermont
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 1,034
Current projection: 1,086
Virginia
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 29,677
Current projection: 29,602
Washington
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 14,672
Current projection: 14,387
West Virginia
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 11,616
Current projection: 11,514
Wisconsin
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 16,093
Current projection: 15,439
Wyoming
COVID-19 deaths previously projected: 2,310
Current projection: 2,383