BUDAPEST – Dozens of European leaders will be assessing a new global outlook on Thursday, during a one-day summit bound to center on the concerns of many and the jubilation of a few in the wake of the election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president that could have far-reaching consequences for the continent.
During his election campaign, Trump has threatened anything from a trade war with Europe to a withdrawal of NATO commitments and a fundamental shift of support for Ukraine in its war with Russia — all issues that could have groundbreaking consequences for nations across Europe, especially the 27-nation European Union.
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It was already beyond doubt that the transatlantic relationship would change after Tuesday's vote. But under a Democratic president, that was expected to be gradual. Based on Trump's own campaign promises, seismic changes may lie ahead.
And for the populist and hard-right forces within the EU, who have already opened fissures with the political establishment, the election of Trump reinforces their position.
For summit host and ardent Trump fan, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Wednesday was a day of celebration — even if EU relations were extremely turbulent during Trump's first term, from 2017-2021.
“I see a brilliant victory, perhaps the biggest comeback and giant struggle in Western political history," Orbán said. “For the world, it means the hope for peace.”
Serbia’s populist leader Aleksandar Vučić, who will be another high-profile guest at Thursday's summit in Budapest, was equally enthusiastic.
“Serbia is committed to cooperation with the USA on stability, prosperity and peace,” Vučić said.
The EU had prepared for months for a potential return of Trump, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated him once his victory became clear.
She said that the EU and the United States “are more than just allies. We are bound by a true partnership between our people, uniting 800 million citizens.”
“Let us work together on a transatlantic partnership that continues to deliver for our citizens. Millions of jobs and billions in trade and investment on each side of the Atlantic depend on the dynamism and stability of our economic relationship,” she said.
Von der Leyen can only hope for better. Trump's administration slapped tariffs on EU steel and aluminum in 2018, based on the claim that foreign products, even if produced by American allies, were a threat to U.S. national security. Europeans and other allies retaliated with duties on U.S.-made motorcycles, bourbon, peanut butter and jeans, among other items.
The impact of the U.S. election result could be felt in Europe for years to come, on issues including the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as migration or climate change.
The string of geopolitical conflicts “is putting peace, stability and prosperity at risk in our region,” said the summit invitation letter to the leaders of the European Political Community, which unites almost 50 nations across Europe, barring Russia and Belarus.
Among the leaders likely to attend on Thursday is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is expected to make another plea for more aid as his country fends off Moscow's invasion. The timing is laden with significance as Trump has vowed to end the war “within 24 hours” of being elected — something leaders in Kyiv interpret as an impending evaporation of U.S. support should Trump win.
Orbán makes plain his support for Trump
Not so long ago, such a meeting — which is also expected to include leaders from non-EU countries like Turkey, Serbia and the United Kingdom — would end with praise for European unity and a common political direction. Yet with Orbán as the host of the summit, friction is as good as assured.
Orbán predicted a Trump victory and suggested that civil and criminal cases against him were the result of a politically motivated U.S. Justice Department — a common Trump refrain.
“Orbán’s foreign policy dream came true,” said Peter Kreko, the head of the Political Capital think tank in Budapest.
Having played the obstructionist for years within the 27-nation EU, Orbán now holds the bloc's rotating presidency, giving him a more prominent platform and making him the host of Thursday's EPC summit, as well as another gathering of leaders in the EU Council on Friday.
“He always uses these international meetings to promote his own agenda. And also he pretty much has taken hostage the whole Council presidency,” Kreko said.
The presidency under Orbán caused turmoil from day one, when he declared “Make Europe Great Again” the motto of his six months in charge. It was a strikingly clear reference to his affection for Trump, which he followed up with unannounced visits to Moscow and Beijing, angering EU leaders who said he wasn't acting on their behalf.
While Orbán has cast the result of U.S. elections as pivotal for Europe's future — he's even delayed passing Hungary's 2025 national budget until after a new president is elected — not all EU leaders are comfortable with the bloc's fate being so tightly bound up with the movements of American politics.
Donald Tusk, the center-right prime minister of Poland, said that Europe must forge a more independent path that is less sensitive to changes across the Atlantic.
"Some claim that the future of Europe depends on the American elections, while it depends first and foremost on us, on the condition that Europe finally grows up and believes in its own strength," Tusk said in the days before the summit. “Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over.”