This is the Astros newsletter emailed out each week by the KPRC 2 Sports team. To subscribe, visit click2houston.com/newsletters.
Recommended Videos
Hey guys, it’s Ari Alexander and we’re closing down the season with a loooong homestand. 8 straight games at home so if you don’t have playoff tickets, it’s a perfect time to see the Astros at Minute Maid for the last time this season. Of course since the playoffs are looming, let’s cover a few playoff topics including roster construction, the #4 starter and potential matchups.
THE MATCHUP
As it stands the Astros are 1 game away from clinching the #1 seed in the AL and Home Field Advantage throughout the American League side of the playoffs. They’re likely to do that. That means they would face the winner of the 4-5 Wild Card Matchup, which as of right now are the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays. That is also likely. The Astros have seen Tampa Bay in the playoffs twice in the past three years, beating them in a contentious and difficult ALDS in 2019 and losing in 7 in the 2020 ALCS. The Astros are far better than the Rays, very familiar with the Rays (GM James Click helped build that roster), and yet because of how weird the Rays are, they are not an easy matchup. Houston gets them for 3 at home this weekend, and can further gain confidence from their previous sweep of the Rays in Tampa.
The Blue Jays are another story as I think they could be potentially the toughest AL opponent, and that includes the Yankees. The Blue Jays potentially have the best non-Astros 1-2 playoff rotation (Alek Manoah-Kevin Gausman) and have arguably the best lineup in baseball. Regular season series’ haven’t mattered to me since 2015 when I saw the Mets (0-7 vs. the Cubs in 2015 regular season) sweep the Cubs in the 2015 NLCS. That being said, the Astros are 2-4 vs. Toronto this year, and have largely crushed everyone else.
THE #4 STARTER
The Astros have the best 1-through-3 starters in the AL, maybe in the MLB. Justin Verlander-Framber Valdez-Lance McCullers Jr. is a phenomenal trio. However, they’re going to need 4 starters, and luckily thanks to the pitching the depth they have 4 pitchers to choose from.
Jose Urquidy
The Good: Urquidy pitched to a 2.58 ERA in 14 starts from mid-June to early September. He has successful playoff experience as a starter. He also has 6 postseason relief appearances.
The Bad: Urquidy has gotten lit up in two of his last 3 starts.
Luis Garcia
The Good: Garcia seems to have recently fixed whatever inconsistency he’s had throughout the season, pitching to a 1.96 ERA in his 4 September starts.
The Bad: He’s been the most inconsistent of the Astros starting pitchers in 2022. Also, he has no postseason relief experience.
Cristian Javier
The Good: Javier is the Astros best starter-turned-relief weapon, but has he earned the #4 spot? Javier has a sub-3.00 ERA as a starter in 2022 and has the best strikeout stuff of the group.
The Bad: There isn’t anything bad about Javier, but if you have him as your #4 starter, you likely miss out on using him in the first three games of a series.
Hunter Brown
The Good: Impressive two starts in MLB so far, and has electric stuff. Has pitched out of the bullpen in MLB and plenty in Triple-A.
The Bad: Rookie with very few MLB innings and no postseason experience.
My Verdict: I want Jose Urquidy as the #4 starter, while using Cristian Javier as the main multi-inning weapon. If the Astros had less depth, Javier would be a must-starter.
BUILDING THE PLAYOFF ROSTER
Right now the Astros have 28 players, 14 hitters and 14 pitchers through the end of the regular season. They’ll have to leave two players off - 1 hitter and 1 pitcher - when they get to the ALDS.
HITTERS
C Martin Maldonado (1)
C Christian Vazquez (2)
There isn’t much drama to who I would leave off - it’s #3 catcher/DH Yainer Díaz. In 2023, Díaz will battle Korey Lee for playing time as top prospect catchers, but the Astros don’t need a 3rd catcher on the playoff roster.
1B Yuli Gurriel (3) will start, 1B/LF Trey Mancini (4) will back him up while potentially starting at two other positions. 2B Jose Altuve (5), SS Jeremy Pena (6) and 3B Alex Bregman (7) are obviously your infield. Utility man Aledmys Díaz (8) has been the most underrated Astro bat this season. He’ll be key in the playoffs. LF/DH Yordan Alvarez (9), CF Chas McCormick (10) and RF Kyle Tucker (11) make up the outfield. Utility man Mauricio Dubon (12) will start behind Justin Verlander and fill in elsewhere.
THE FINAL DECISION: To me, this comes down to Utility man David Hensley (13), who plays a bit of everywhere and has told me he’s recently been taking fly balls in the outfield. That leaves off CF Jake Meyers (X) who has been hot in Sugar Land lately. Meyers could get a look if Chas McCormick has a rough ALDS.
PITCHERS
Justin Verlander (1) is your ace, Framber Valdez (2) is your #2, Lance McCullers Jr. (3) is your #3. I want Jose Urquidy (4) as the #4 starter.
Ryan Pressly (5) is your closer, Rafael Montero (6) is the 8th inning guy, Ryne Stanek (7) puts out fires and Hector Neris (8) is versatile and will make his first playoff appearance after a long career as the Phillies closer. Bryan Abreu (9) arguably has the best stuff of all the relievers and Cristian Javier (10) is one of the best multi-inning weapons in baseball.
The Astros need at least one lefty so Will Smith (11) stays on the roster.
THE FINAL DECISION: I think you leave Luis Garcia (12) on to give you a versatile option, and as much as I like Hunter Brown (X), I think the Astros will play the roster conservatively and keep reliever Phil Maton (13) for at least the ALDS.
