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Hey guys it’s Ari Alexander, We made it! 162 got played, even if it started late. Let’s run through some notes in the last regular season newsletter. After this week, it gets (more) intense!
JUST KEEP WINNING
The Astros went 106-56 in 2022. It’s 1 win short of their franchise record 107 wins in 2019. It’s also the 4th time in the past 5 full seasons the Astros have won 100 games, and 5 overall. 80% of the Astros 100-win seasons have come since 2017. This is the Golden Age of Astros baseball.
WILD CARD OPPONENTS
It’s either the Toronto Blue Jays (Astros 2-4 vs. TOR in 2022) or the Seattle Mariners (Astros 12-7 vs. SEA in 2022) for the ALDS.
VERLANDER LOCKS UP THE CY YOUNG
He hasn’t won it yet, but he’s going to. Justin Verlander’s final stats of 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA in 175 innings with 185 strikeouts is nothing short of remarkable on its own. It gets more incredible when you consider he’s 39. It gets ridiculous when you consider he’s coming off missing nearly two full seasons after Tommy John Surgery. Unless something absurd happens with the voting, this will be Verlander’s 3rd Cy Young. He’s already a Hall of Fame lock, but this just adds to it.
Framber Valdez has a good chance to finish Top 5 in Cy Young voting. He went 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA and eclipsed 200 innings, leading the AL with 201.1.
MORE RECORDS
Ryne Stanek just set the Astros franchise ERA record for a reliever breaking Will Harris’ 2019 record of 1.50. Stanek pitched to a 1.15 ERA in 2022.
Stanek’s journey is pretty incredible. He was a first round pick out of Arkansas in 2013 and supposed to be a top of the rotation starter. Slowly, he morphed into a reliever, then once he hit the big leagues, into Tampa Bay’s opener. In 2019, the Rays traded Stanek to the Marlins for a pair of relievers. Stanek struggled in 2019 with Miami, and again in 2020, giving up 8 ER in 10 IP. The Marlins non-tendered Stanek, making him a free agent. The Astros took a shot at Stanek, and after a good 2021, Stanek became one of the best non-closers in the AL in 2022. He’s on his final year of Arbitration in 2023, and will be a Houston Astro at least through next season.
FINAL FOUR: PLAYOFF EDITION
We went through the full playoff roster last week in the newsletter, so let’s do a shortened version of this.
On the offense, I think it’s down to 1B/2B/3B/SS/LF David Hensley and OF Jake Meyers for the final spot on the postseason roster.
On the pitching staff is where it gets interesting and I think the Astros are choosing among 4 players:
LHP Will Smith
RHP Jose Urquidy
RHP Phil Maton
RHP Hunter Brown
The Astros needed a left handed reliever at the deadline. Dusty Baker wanted a reliable lefty. The Astros went and got one. Will Smith has been reliable, but unspectacular. I think Smith has a great shot to make the final roster, however if the Blue Jays are Houston’s opponent - their lineup is very short on lefties, making Smith potentially unnecessary as a matchup option.
That leaves the three righties, two of which are basically starters.
Jose Urquidy had a phenomenal stretch, but has pitched poorly in 3 of his last 4 appearances. Urquidy got lit up in two starts in September, calmed down in his final start, but gave up 2 home runs vs. the Phillies in relief Monday. Urquidy’s ERA in those 4 appearances is 7.36. The Astros have far too much depth to bring someone struggling like that to the postseason.
Phil Maton was phenomenal in the postseason for Houston last year, but has been the weakest of Houston’s regular relievers in 2022. You could argue he’s not a top 5 reliever for the Astros (Pressly/Montero/Stanek/Abreu/Neris). So do you bring in your 6th best reliever to the ALDS or a potential multi-inning weapon in Hunter Brown? Maton has given up runs in 3 of his past 4 appearances with an ERA of 6.75. However, before that, he went on a monthlong scoreless streak.
The last name is the most intriguing - Hunter Brown. He has a 0.89 ERA in his 20.2 IP as a Houston Astro. He has the best stuff of any of the above. Brown touched 99 with a fastball and 96 with a slider (although it seems to be more of a slider/cutter hybrid - known as a slutter similar to Tyler Glasnow), need I say more?
Brown has had very few innings, but he’s passed every test, being nearly unhittable. He can start, he can pitch as a multi-inning relief weapon.
If I were constructing the playoff roster, I’d want the versatility Urquidy and Brown offer. I’d also want to have a lefty just in case. That leaves Phil Maton off.
