Hey guys it’s Ari Alexander, covering the Astros offseason and I’m looking at ARBITRATION DAY! Friday the 13th was when most arbitration deals get done and the Astros knocked out six of their eight very quickly.
THE DEALS THAT GOT DONE
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LHP Blake Taylor - $830,000
RHP Jose Urquidy - $3,025,000
RHP Phil Maton - $2,550,000
RHP Ryne Stanek - $3,600,000
OF Mauricio Dubon - $1,400,000
LHP Framber Valdez - $6,800,000
BIG WINNERS
Framber Valdez’s salary jumped from $3 million to $6.8 million, more than doubling what he made in 2022. Valdez finished 5th in Cy Young voting and set himself up for a potential eight-figure payday in his final arbitration season in 2024.
Ryne Stanek had a career year and was rewarded with $3.6 million, which is significantly up from the $2.1 million he made in 2022. Stanek’s 1.15 ERA is a franchise record for relievers.
THE DEALS THAT HAVEN’T GOTTEN DONE
Cristian Javier could be headed to arbitration, according to Dominican baseball reporter Hector Gomez. A league source tells me Javier’s contract was unlikely to get done immediately from the start due to the complexity of his case.
So why is Javier’s arbitration process so complex? It’s his first arbitration year, where a guy like Jose Urquidy got $3.025 million, and Framber Valdez got $3.0 million. Javier’s projections from Spotrac and MLB Trade Rumors come in around $3.1 to $3.2 million.
While we don’t know what the Astros are offering, if the projections are accurate, he’s being treated similarly to the guys I mentioned.
The arbitration process is an uncomfortable one for both players and teams. Teams typically point out flaws to lessen the salary, while players have to defend their skills. From the Astros side, their argument is potentially built on Javier having limited time as a starter (the partial season in 2020, 9 games in 2021, most of the season in 2022). From Javier’s side, his argument lies with the numbers he put up in 2022 (2.54 ERA and an insane 0.95 WHIP) and in the playoffs. Plus, there’s, y’know, the two games where he was part of a no-hitter. In the same season. One of which was in a World Series. That discussion is ongoing.
Kyle Tucker is the other, with a projected $5.8 million average from Spotrac and MLBTR. Tucker’s case is another one where the team can make an argument to pay Tucker similar to what they gave Carlos Correa in 2019 ($5m), and Tucker can make an argument that he’s an MVP candidate and deserves to get paid closer to what players like Pete Alonso and Vlad Guerrero Jr. are receiving (a reported $14.5 million). Alonso has a career 14.2 bWAR, Guerrero Jr.’s is 13.4 and Tucker’s is 12.8. Alonso received $7.4 million in 2022 in his arb 1 season, coming into that year with three less bWAR than Tucker.
WHAT’S NEXT
FanFest! The Astros are hosting FanFest at Minute Maid Park on Jan. 21. This is the first “normal” one since probably 2019. 2020 FanFest was marred by the immediate reaction to the cheating scandal. The years 2021 and 2022 were either canceled or delayed due to COVID-19.
