Hey guys, it’s Ari Alexander with your Christmastime Astros newsletter.
Much has been quiet around the baseball world with many of the big-budget teams waiting on a decision from Japanese Ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Let’s dive in with what’s going on with the Astros this offseason.
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WHAT’S UP WITH THE FRAMBER VALDEZ TRADE RUMORS?
Right after the season ended, I spoke with a couple of MLB sources who had some surprising thoughts on the Astros offseason - they believed the Astros were open to trading Framber Valdez.
Given Houston’s financial situation - meaning they likely want to avoid the Competitive Balance Tax, it does make some sense. Valdez is projected to make $12.8 million in his 3rd arbitration season in 2024. Valdez is a Super 2 player, meaning he gets 4 years of arbitration payments and will make substantial money again in 2025, before hitting free agency before the 2026 season, where he will command a large contract.
Knowing the context, what’s going on with Valdez? The answer is probably nothing. Multiple sources over the offseason have all told me similar information - the Astros are, or at least at one point were, open to listening on a Valdez deal, but the likelihood anything gets done is very slim. The buzz has also been inconsistent. Right before Winter Meetings in early December, I checked in on the potential for a Valdez trade, and the response was that it had died down. By the end of Winter Meetings, the idea cropped up again, with league sources believing the Astros were open to taking calls on their co-ace. The buzz has again recently died down.
The caveat was, and still is this - the price for Valdez would be very high - a mix of prospects and controllable players, making a deal with any teams interested difficult to get done. Also, Houston doesn’t have much motivation to trade Valdez.
So, what’s up with Framber Valdez? Probably nothing, despite some teams liking the idea of acquiring him. The Astros are built to compete in 2024, and can and will use Valdez at the top of their rotation for a playoff-contending team.
WHAT’S GOING ON WITH THE BULLPEN?
The Astros have checked in on multiple relievers over the offseason, but there’s no indication they’re close to a deal on any of them, and are likely to be outbid on any of the players they’re interested in. The Astros have shown interest in Hector Neris, Jordan Hicks, and Phil Maton at one point or another during the offseason, multiple sources have told me. Neris is projected to be priced at the top of the market, just below former Padres closer Josh Hader. Jordan Hicks will likely command a three or four-year contract, clearing at least $30 million total. The Astros are unlikely to meet that price, given they’re already paying a closer and a setup reliever more than $10 million per year, not to mention Kendall Graveman making $8 million in 2024.
Without any upgrades, Houston’s bullpen could be more formidable than expected. Remember, relievers are volatile, and the previous year’s performance isn’t always indicative of future success. It’s what makes signing free-agent relievers to multi-year contracts such a crapshoot, historically.
If the Astros don’t make another move, and I would say that’s a strong possibility - here’s their 2024 bullpen:
- Closer - Ryan Pressly - One of the best closers in baseball. No issues here.
- 8th inning - Bryan Abreu - Arguably the best setup man in baseball, again, this is a strength.
- 7th inning - Kendall Graveman - The Astros do have interest in a reunion with Hector Neris, but it seems unlikely. The Astros welcomed back Kendall Graveman at the 2023 trade deadline. Graveman had good surface numbers - a 3.12 ERA in 2023, with a 2.42 ERA with the Astros. Graveman had a spiked walk percentage, which made his underlying numbers a bit scary. The good news, he’s never come close to the 2023 walk rate, and that should normalize. Graveman has significant late-inning experience, as well.
- #4 Leverage - Rafael Montero - Much has been made of Montero’s large contract and his 2023 down year. Relievers are volatile and there’s a chance Montero returns to his 2022 dominance. Montero had an awful 2023, but there are some underlying metrics that show he could bounce back. He only lost 0.3 MPH on his average fastball, from 96.2 to 95.9, and his strikeout rate wasn’t significantly down (27.0 in 2022, 26.5 in 2023). His walk rate was up, and the hard-hit rate spiked, but the raw stuff itself didn’t change much. If Montero is anywhere close to his 2022 form, the Astros have a player. If he’s not, they’ll need to make a deadline deal to bolster the pen.
- #5 Leverage/On-base guy - Seth Martinez - This was Phil Maton’s role, and the Astros have checked in on a Maton reunion. Seth Martinez was excellent at that one specific skill - Martinez stranded 17 of 17 inherited runners. In 2022, when Martinez had a better season by raw numbers, he went 14 of 15 stranding runners. In his career, Martinez has stranded 31 of 32 inherited runners, which is both awesome and likely unsustainable for any reliever - for instance, Mariano Rivera allowed 29% of inherited runners to score in his career. The league average is 32%.
- #6 Leverage - Bennett Sousa - The only left-hander here is a favorite of GM Dana Brown, who has mentioned him multiple times this offseason. The Astros plucked Sousa for nothing off waivers in September, after Sousa bounced around multiple teams in 2023. His results with the Astros were excellent in extremely limited time, pitching 6.1 scoreless innings. Sousa made enough of an impression in his short time, the Astros have yet to be linked to a left-handed reliever that I know of this offseason. Despite a career 7.06 ERA in 32 MLB appearances, Houston may have found their bullpen dark horse. Sousa throws 2 pitches - a 95 MPH fastball and an 87 MPH slider.
- #7 Leverage - Ronel Blanco - Blanco was a starter for most of 2023, but according to Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings, Blanco will resume his bullpen role in 2024. Houston’s former Triple-A closer made 7 starts and 10 relief appearances, pitching to a 4.50 ERA in 52 innings. Blanco had success with his slider in 2023 but struggled with his 95 MPH fastball. He should get plenty of early chances as a multi-inning reliever.
- Long Man - Jose Urquidy - For now, we’re putting Urquidy here, assuming J.P. France gets the #5 spot in the rotation on the strength of his 2023 season. Urquidy provides the Astros with a legitimate back-end rotation starter and a potential trade candidate once Lance McCullers, Jr. and Luis Garcia return from their injuries around July.
NOTES: WHAT ELSE IS GOING ON THIS OFFSEASON?
Honestly, not much. The Astros are working around the margins and don’t have much to upgrade. Their lineup is essentially set, their rotation is essentially set, and though their bullpen could use an upgrade, they can always explore that at the trade deadline.
The Astros were not involved with OF/DH Lourdes Gurriel, Jr., a league source told KPRC 2. Gurriel signed a 3-year, $42 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Of the position players I’ve checked on, I haven’t been able to find a link to the Astros. Unless they make a surprise, marginal move, it seems they’re mostly set offensively.
They’ve filled their primary weakness, at backup catcher, with Victor Caratini. Anything else that happens will likely be similar to the small signings they’ve made (see: Wander Suero, and Tayler Scott) unless they can nab a reliever at a price cheaper than currently expected.
The reliever market is currently slow thanks to Josh Hader, multiple league sources tell me. Once Hader signs, the multi-year reliever market should pick up.
Former Astros reliever Phil Maton is receiving interest from roughly 10 teams this offseason. The Cardinals, Mets, and Astros have all checked in at various points this offseason.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
