Astros Spring Training Notes: Full Squad Workouts, Bregman’s contract situation and Peña’s new swing

HOUSTON – The Houston Astros held their first full squad workout Monday in West Palm Beach, where new manager Joe Espada sent a message in a team meeting - this is a World Series contender. While Espada declined to go into the specifics of his speech, players intimated Espada laid out how much talent and experience this club has.

“(He said) we have the tools to make it to the World Series, we have MVPs, we have Cy Youngs, we have Gold Glovers, we have Silver Sluggers,” said pitcher Framber Valdez. “We have everything needed for us to get back to the World Series.”

“Personally I think we got the best team in the league,” said outfielder Kyle Tucker. “I know that’s kind of vibe around the clubhouse is that you have to have that mindset. You still have to earn it and grind through it, but you have to have that mindset that you’re the best player or the team out there.”

WHO IMPRESSED?

Four Astros pitchers threw live batting practice to a group of hitters. Of the four, reliever Ryan Pressly looked sharp with high fastballs to the very patient Alex Bregman. New closer Josh Hader was nearly untouchable, especially against left-handed hitters he faced. Ronel Blanco and minor leaguer Misael Tamarez also threw.

Yainer Diaz and Jake Meyers each hit home runs in their live batting practice sessions. Diaz hit a deep drive to dead center off Blanco, while Meyers crushed a long home run pulled to left off a hanging breaking ball from Tamarez.

ASSESSING THE CONTRACT SITUATIONS

Let’s start with Alex Bregman, who will become a free agent after the 2024 season. Bregman said this week he’ll plan to listen, while GM Dana Brown said the team plans to offer Bregman some sort of extension.

What does that look like financially? After talking to several in the industry, and weighing comparisons, I’ve come up with a range based off the midpoint of a projected contract for a current free agent, and a recent extension.

Bregman is a relatively similar player to current free agent Matt Chapman (Bregman has the better bat, Chapman a slightly better glove, they are of similar age at free agency). Chapman is currently unsigned but is projected to receive a contract in the 5-year (CBS projection) or 6-year (MLB Trade Rumors Projection), $150 million range (both projections came to this number). Bregman should receive more years and more money than Chapman, given how much more bat he provides. Bregman has a 135 career OPS+/126 OPS+ from 2021-2023, while Chapman comes in at 117 OPS+ for his career and 108 OPS+ from 2021-2023.

The second comparison is Manny Machado, who signed a 10-year, $300 million deal in 2019, followed by an 11-year, $350 million extension before the 2023 season. Machado was younger when he signed those deals than Bregman and has had more peak years, while also providing excellent defense. The midpoint of $150 million and $350 million is 250 million. The midpoint of 5/6 years and 11 years is roughly 8 years - putting Bregman in the 8 or 9-year/$240-250 million range.

Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez’s situations are far less immediate, with the two players becoming free agents after 2025, but Tucker said Monday he’s open to discussing an extension with the Astros, saying while there have been discussions between the Astros and his representatives at Excel Sports Management, there has been nothing concrete offered. Valdez said Monday there have not been any real extension talks between the Astros and his agents at Octagon.

NEW SWING, WHO DIS?

Jeremy Peña has been teasing a new and improved swing since late January, and finally debuted it on Monday.

Peña has much less bat waggle, and a generally quieter swing with less moving parts. He hopes to keep the improvements he made in 2023 when it came to walk rate and strikeout rate, but get back some of the barrel percentage and power he lost last year.

NAMES TO WATCH

Based on talking to some people around camp, here are some dark horses to watch for:

OF/1B Trey Cabbage - Both Dana Brown and Joe Espada are high on his potential and are working on a swing fix to cut down on strikeouts. Cabbage came over on waivers from the Los Angeles Angels, and is coming off a 30-30 season in Triple-A in 2023.

RHP Dylan Coleman - Coleman had a great 2022 with Kansas City, but an awful 2023. He used to touch 101, but had velocity down in 2023. If he can regain triple-digit heat, he’s a great upside play for Houston.

RHP Drew Strotman - Here’s the real dark horse. Strotman has never made the big leagues and has bounced around organizations. He’s spent three straight years in Triple-A, with bad ERAs in all three seasons. Some teammates tell me he has easy velocity and nasty stuff. Strotman is a non-roster invitee, but was hitting 99 this offseason at Tread Athletic Facility.