HOUSTON – Hey guys, it’s Ari Alexander with your Houston Astros newsletter.
One week. One week away from Opening Day! We’re so close! The good news for Astros fans is there isn’t much to be decided with the roster. There are maybe four spots within question, and it may be more like two.
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We’ll get into it in the newsletter.
INJURIES INTO OPENING DAY
The Astros have been mostly lucky with health when it comes to position players, but pitching has been a different story. Two of the Astros’ eight mainline starting pitcher candidates are already out until July (Lance McCullers, Jr. and Luis Garcia). Justin Verlander won’t be ready for Opening Day. Down to five. Now, Jose Urquidy will miss some time with a forearm strain. Four. The Astros are only left with Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, and J.P. France as regular starters ready for the season, and even France started spring training late due to some shoulder inflammation.
After flirting with signing Blake Snell, Houston will more than likely go with Ronel Blanco (who has been phenomenal in spring) as the #5 starter, with Brandon Bielak (who is out of minor league options) as the main depth. Top prospect Spencer Arrighetti has been sent down to minor league camp and probably factors in as option #7.
Other realistic free agent options included Jordan Montgomery, whom the Astros have shown no indication of acquiring, and Michael Lorenzen, who signed with the Rangers Wednesday night.
At this point, it feels unlikely Houston will add from outside the organization unless more injuries pile up, and even then, Arrighetti probably gets the chance over bringing in a Johnny Cueto or a Mike Clevinger.
THE BENCH BATTLE CLEARS UP
Mauricio Dubon and Victor Caratini are guaranteed bench roles. Two of the four are definitely set. This week catcher Cesar Salazar, infielder David Hensley, and outfielder Trey Cabbage were sent to minor league camp, so they’re out. Grae Kessinger pulled a hamstring, and the team says he won’t be able to do baseball activities for at least a few days. With a week until Opening Day, it seems Kessinger is unlikely to be ready. That leaves three options for two spots - 1B Jon Singleton, LF Corey Julks, and OF Joey Loperfido.
Loperfido is the sexiest name of the bunch, as the Astros’ #6 ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline. He’s 24, he plays multiple positions with a bit of minor league experience at first base and second base along with outfield and is crushing the ball in spring training. His versatility is an advantage, but the lack of at-bats available to Astros bench players may make it smarter long-term to start Loperfido in Sugar Land.
Corey Julks has also been great in spring training and has done nothing to lose his spot to Loperfido. That brings us to Singleton, who is out of minor-league options like Bielak. If the Astros don’t put Singleton on the 26-man roster, they will have to pass him through waivers, and could potentially lose him to another team. I believe they have enough desire to keep Singleton to give him a bench spot.
That leaves the last man between Julks and Loperfido, with Julks likely having an advantage due to the 93 games of experience he gained in 2023.
Opening Day bench prediction: IF/OF Mauricio Dubon, C/1B Victor Caratini, 1B Jon Singleton, LF Corey Julks
HOW WILL THE BULLPEN SHAKE OUT?
The bullpen has 8 spots, with 7 being available on Opening Day due to Bryan Abreu’s two-game suspension. Four spots are definitely guaranteed - Josh Hader will close, Ryan Pressly and Abreu (once he returns from suspension) are the setup men, and Rafael Montero is one of the highest-paid non-closers in baseball.
That leaves four spots available. With the Astros struggling with starting pitching depth, I believe it’s likely Brandon Bielak will be on the opening-day roster as the long man/swingman/emergency starter. Bielak makes 5. Seth Martinez has largely been solid the past two seasons and has a knack for pitching with runners on base. He should get the first crack at inheriting the Phil Maton role of cleanup man. Martinez also has a 0.00 ERA in 7 spring appearances. That’s 6.
GM Dana Brown has lamented many times that he couldn’t get lefty reliever Bennett Sousa on the playoff roster, due to how late the team picked him up. Sousa has had an up-and-down spring training but should have a lead over much of the rest of the pen candidates, including another lefty in Parker Mushinski. That’s 7.
Dylan Coleman had an inside track at the last role until command issues prompted a move to minor league camp. Dana Brown is high on Coleman, and he should factor in at some point in 2024, but for now, until he can consistently throw strikes, Coleman is likely to be in Sugar Land. Other options included Forrest Whitley (finger injury has slowed progress), Drew Strotman (throws gas, but has been sent to minor league camp), or Joel Kuhnel (pitched for the Astros in 2023, but was removed from the 40-man roster and re-signed to a minor league non-roster deal this offseason). I think all of those guys are behind this next guy...
I’m giving the last spot to South African non-roster invitee Tayler Scott. Scott’s MLB track record has not been pretty. He has a career ERA of 9.00. He’s bounced around of a bunch of organizations, he throws a league average velocity fastball, etc., etc.
But he’s been terrific in spring for the Astros, pitching to a 1.69 ERA and a 0.66 WHIP in 10.2 spring innings. He’s been one of the most solid, consistent players on the mound in camp.
Because Scott is a non-roster invitee, the Astros will have to add him to the 40-man roster. To do that, they’ll have to send a player to the 60-day IL. They have four players currently on the roster who could be moved to the 60-day IL to clear a spot - McCullers, Jr., Garcia, Kendal Graveman, and now Oliver Ortega, the righty reliever. The Astros announced Thursday that Ortega will miss 3-4 months after elbow surgery.
Opening Day Bullpen prediction: LHP Josh Hader, RHP Ryan Pressly, RHP Rafael Montero, RHP Seth Martinez, RHP Brandon Bielak, LHP Benett Sousa, RHP Tayler Scott, Suspended for two games - RHP Bryan Abreu
