HOUSTON – Astros franchise cornerstone third baseman Alex Bregman is now officially a free agent.
The Houston Astros have until 4 p.m. central on Monday, November 4 to get a deal done before the other 29 teams have a chance at their two-time World Series Champion third baseman. I polled eight industry insiders to project what Bregman will receive. The insiders, made up of agents and front office executives, were given anonymity to speak freely, made six financial projections, and two projections where Bregman will land.
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THE SITUATION FOR THE ASTROS
The Astros are at a bit of a crossroads entering the 2025 season. They are coming off yet another AL West title, but their worst and most disappointing playoff finish since 2016. Over their golden years, the team has allowed keystone players to leave, and yet were able to reload and continue winning at a high level.
Charlie Morton left in free agency after the 2018 season, Gerrit Cole left after 2019, but the Astros reloaded with high-level pitching. George Springer left after the 2020 season, and the Astros followed that up with back to back AL pennants, using a group of outfielders to fill in capably for the 2017 World Series MVP. After the 2021 season, vocal leader Carlos Correa left in free agency, and his replacement, Jeremy Peña won a Gold Glove and World Series MVP in his rookie year.
If Bregman leaves, the Astros have internal options to replace him, but no one close to Bregman’s on-field or clubhouse impact. Rookie Shay Whitcomb had a short audition in 2024 after back to back strong seasons in Triple-A. Rookie Zach Dezenzo is a potential option at 3rd Base or 1st Base. 2023 First Round pick Brice Matthews rose through the system quickly, and played some 3rd base at the Triple-A level in 2024. General Manager Dana Brown is known for aggressively moving players through the minor leagues, and Mathews could get a shot to claim the job in spring training, or work into the job during the 2025 season.
In terms of outside replacements for Bregman, the third base market beyond the star is bleak. Former Chicago White Sox infielder Yoan Moncada is available, but has been injured for three straight seasons, and the White Sox recently declined his expensive club option. Moncada was worth 1.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) over the past three years combined, which is less than half of any of Alex Bregman’s output in each of the past three seasons.
THE SITUATION FOR ALEX BREGMAN
Houston Astros fans are well-versed in all things Bregman. The 2nd overall pick in 2015 turned into everything the Astros hoped and more over the past decade. Bregman helped the Astros win two World Series Championships. Bregman made two All-Star games, winning MVP in 2018. Bregman’s watermark season was 2019, where he finished 2nd in MVP voting behind Mike Trout and hit a career-high 41 home runs and a Silver Slugger.
During his nine seasons in an Astros uniform, Bregman has been consistently one of the best 3rd basemen in baseball, hitting 32% above league average while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense (he’s a finalist for the Gold Glove this season).
In the clubhouse, Bregman is considered to be one of the Astros’ vocal leaders, and a baseball genius. Many pitchers credit Bregman with helping them make tweaks due to the extra research he does, while Bregman’s obsession with hitting mechanics have helped his teammates work on their own swings.
Off the field, Bregman is one of the most accessible and recognizable players in the league. He’s known in Houston for his work in the community with the Bregman Cares Foundation, working to raise money and awareness for various causes including helping children with autism, helping at-risk youth, raising money for the Houston Food Bank and helping in various holiday toy drives for children.
Bregman will turn 31 at the start of the 2025 season, and is essentially in his prime. He has the ability to command a long term contract that exceeds the current per-year amount he’s made in his previous 5-year, $100 extension with the Astros. Bregman is rated as a consensus top 5 free agent throughout baseball, and is significantly more valuable than any 3rd baseman available.
THE PROJECTIONS
I asked eight industry insiders to give a guess for years and dollar amount for Bregman’s contract, along with a quick thought. Two of the eight didn’t have an amount guess, but had thoughts on where he would end up.
INSIDER 1
6 years, $180 million
“I think a team gets desperate and gives him $30 million per year.”
INSIDER 2
6 years, $172 million
“I could also see something like 7 years, $185 million.”
INSIDER 3
5 years, $125 million - with an opt-out after 2025
“Bregman is a better bat than Matt Chapman, Chapman is a better glove. Does Bregman deserve 3x what Chapman got (3 years, $54 million after 2023)? In light of that deal and career similarities I think that’s a reasonable deal for him, but getting him an opt-out after 1 year would help.”
INSIDER 4
6 years, $150 million
“6/150 is a good place to start, but I could see him getting into the $28 million per year range if he were willing to go shorter on the years.”
INSIDER 5
5 years, $135 million
“I could see it go to 6/150. It’s the years with Bregman, and I could see someone have to go to 7 years to get him.”
INSIDER 6
No financial prediction - stays in Houston
INSIDER 7
7 years, $175 million
“I would give him 6/150, and I don’t think the Astros go to a 7th year.”
INSIDER 8
No financial prediction - stays in Houston
“Haven’t really thought about an amount, but I think less than he’s looking for.”
WHAT TEAMS COULD GO AFTER BREGMAN?
The Astros will make Bregman a competitive offer, but once 4 p.m. hits Monday, they’ll have to compete with the rest of the league for his services. Throughout the regular season, the New York Yankees and Arizona Diamondbacks were two teams league sources told me would have interest. Arizona recently locked in their starting third baseman Eugenio Suarez to a contract for 2025, potentially removing that need. One league source guesses the Washington Nationals could be a dark horse for his services, while the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers have been projected as fits by various publications.
