HOUSTON – The Houston Astros open the 2021 season in Oakland, following a losing 2020 shortened regular season, then an exciting playoff run in which the ‘Stros nearly came back down 3-0 vs. the Rays.
Houston should have some more reinforcements after battling injuries with several key players in 2020.
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Here are five things to watch for this season:
CORREA EXTENSION
Carlos Correa’s deadline has passed, but many times extensions still get done. The 26-year-old shortstop acknowledged he turned down a 6-year, $120 million offer from the Astros a couple of weeks ago. That offer looks worse in light of the recent Mets deal with shortstop Francisco Lindor, in which he was paid $341 million over 10 years.
The big drawback with Correa is his injury history, but when he’s been healthy, he’s been one of the best shortstops in baseball. One thing in Correa’s favor is his extreme postseason success, hitting 17 home runs and 50 RBI in just 63 postseason games. Correa hit six home runs in just 13 postseason games last year, hitting a scorching .362.
Correa’s big question has been centered around health, but now the extension adds another query for the former 1st overall pick.
THE CENTER FIELD PROBLEM
Playoff hero George Springer is now playing for the Toronto Blue Jays, and Houston didn’t spend free-agent dollars to replace him. That means the Astros will start the season with Myles Straw as the center fielder, and with Pedro Leon potentially being a late-season call-up.
Straw acquitted himself well in spring training, hitting .310, but has a career of 75 OPS+ in the majors (25% worse than the average hitter). Straw has also bounced around different positions and has only played 267 major league innings (the equivalent of about 30 games) in center field.
WILL YORDAN ALVAREZ GET HIS 2019 FORM BACK?
The 2019 AL Rookie of the Year was limited to just two games in 2020. Alvarez battled COVID-19, then had surgery on both knees after just eight at-bats (one of them being a home run). Alvarez struggled in spring training, batting just .172, but should be a force in the middle of the Astros lineup. Based on his 2019 season, a full season of Alvarez on that pace would be MVP numbers. Even 75% of his season in 2019, would mean Houston has one of the best hitters in the majors. Another question surrounding Alvarez: can the big man ever play defense well enough to stick at first base or left field? Alvarez has played just 10 games in the field, in left field in his major league career.
WILL THE ROTATION HOLD UP?
Houston’s 2020 rotation was the team’s biggest question, but ended up pitching very well down the stretch and during the playoffs. Justin Verlander is still rehabbing after Tommy John surgery, so the team is led by Zack Greinke and newly-extended Lance McCullers, Jr. McCullers, Jr. missed the 2019 season with Tommy John surgery, and still hasn’t pitched more than roughly 140 innings in a single season in the majors. Can Houston count on McCullers to make 30 starts and pitch around 180 innings? Can the Astros count on Framber Valdez to pitch the remainder of a full season when he returns from his broken finger? When will free-agent signee Jake Odorizzi be ready to start pitching in the majors as he ramps up late? Houston’s current No. 3 and No. 4 starters, Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier have never pitched full seasons, while Houston’s No. 5, Luis Garcia, has 14.1 MLB innings under his belt, with no innings coming in AA or AAA. Garcia came up in 2020 straight to Houston after injuries to the Astros staff and maybe thrust in a major role early.
WHICH PROSPECTS WILL STEP UP?
The Astros have relied on top prospects in their dominant late 2010s run, turning high draft picks like Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and George Springer into superstars. Top pitching prospects like Lance McCullers, Jr. helped solidify a rotation mostly built on trades in the past couple of seasons. In 2020, most of the high-minors players got some major league exposure due to injuries and the lack of minor league play. In 2021, Major League Baseball is set to go back to normal, meaning many Astros prospects will get back into a routine. Houston’s top prospect, pitcher Forrest Whitley, has been high on the list for years, and still won’t make his debut until at least 2022 due to Tommy John surgery. Perhaps, the most exciting prospect is No. 2 ranked prospect, CF Pedro Leon. The Cuban 22-year old was signed after defecting and has been described as an heir apparent to Springer. The question is how ready is Leon? What level will he start at? Can he translate his outrageous 2018-19 season in Cuba (.383 with 15 home runs in 33 games at age 20) to the high minors or majors? Are pitching prospects Luis Garcia and Bryan Abreu ready to contribute in a meaningful way? Will Jeremy Pena (who hit a home run off Jacob deGrom in spring training) prove useful enough that maybe he could play shortstop after 2021? Houston has one of the weaker systems in baseball because all of the team’s top prospects have either graduated to the big leagues or have been traded, but the question remains just how many of them will help the Astros win in 2021.
