Federal forecasters are still predicting a highly active Atlantic hurricane season thanks to near-record sea surface temperatures and the possibility of La Nina.

Get ready for what nearly all the experts think will be one of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record thanks to unprecedented ocean heat and a brewing La Nina.

Forecasters say this year's hurricane season for waters around Hawaii will likely be “below normal” with one to four tropical cyclones across the central Pacific region.

Hurricane season is over 90 days away, and NOAA is already forecasting some changes in our El Nino Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short.

If the weather in Houston has felt odd to you over the last few months, you’re not alone. Much of the southern part of the United States, especially Houston, have been experiencing the weather phenomenon known as El Nino.

El Nino has been our friend this hurricane season, but will it last? And what about Thanksgiving?

After months of gradually warming sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, NOAA officially issued an El Nino advisory Thursday and stated that this one might be different than the others.

The world's oceans are suddenly considerably hotter than just a month or two ago and well above record levels.

After a three year dip in the La Nina pond, the cooling Pacific waters are warming back up.

Very few seasonal hurricane forecasts come out before April simply because the skill level is not there. About all you can go on now is water temperature and, sometimes, the forecast for La Nina/El Nino. Saying that, a group out of England called Tropical Storm Risk issued their first 2023 Hurricane forecast last December (!) and below you’ll see they are calling for a fairly average season citing stronger trade winds last summer and noting that historically a year that follows three La Nina seasons usually comes in about average.

Experts say a natural La Nina weather pattern, unusually warm moist air juiced by climate change, and long-term shift in where tornadoes hit all are factors in Thursday's devastating tornado in Alabama.

Government science teams say that 2022 didn't quite set a record for heat, but it was in the top five or six warmest on record depending on who's doing the measuring.

New Zealand had its hottest year on record in 2022, beating a mark set just a year earlier thanks to a combination of natural weather cycles and manmade global warming, according to the agency that monitors temperatures.

As you can see from today’s cover, it’s been a while since we’ve marked the 40s on the thermometer and now we’re looking at widespread sweater weather for Wednesday morning:

The U.N. weather agency is predicting the phenomenon known as La Nina is poised to last through the end of this year, a mysterious “triple dip” — the first this century — caused by three straight years of its effect on climate patterns like drought and flooding worldwide.

Federal meteorologists say this hurricane season may not be quite as busy as they initially thought, but it should still be more active than normal.

A culmination of unique events led to the recent extensive flooding in the Yellowstone region.

I’ve been talking all year about La Nina, that cooler-than-normal water in the Pacific, which basically means dry weather for Texas and a lack of upper level winds across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Its opposite, El Nino, is warmer than normal Pacific water which creates those upper level winds and those winds can shear apart developing tropical systems. So El Nino is El Amigo in that regard! La Nina not so much.

Get ready now for tropical storm season 2022....all the forecasts are predicting above normal numbers of hurricanes and the National Hurricane Center (part of NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association) came out yesterday with no exception:

Don’t be quick to blame climate change for such a warm December...the jury is still out on that one. However, La Nina is well-established and this is a typical warmer/drier pattern we’re stuck in! Look at the Pacific’s cooler than normal surface waters:

Considering our average high for today is 67°, the fact that we have had highs in the upper 70s and 80s since November 29 is pretty remarkable. In fact, the past three days have been in the low 80s, nearing the all-time record high for December which is 85° (1995)! We get a cool down today with the front, but don’t rush to clean those holiday sweaters because you won’t need them long! We’re right back into the 70s Wednesday with low 80s by Friday.

The winter season outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows a strong La Nina pattern for the US

Last Wednesday I blogged about the newest hurricane forecast from Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University. He is forecasting 17 storms of which 8 become hurricanes and 4 become major (Cat 3) hurricanes. A lot of research goes into his prediction and, as I discussed, a couple of important factors are the state of La Nina/El Nino and the temperatures of the Atlantic ocean waters. Specifically, presence of La Nina = a Busy season and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures = a Busy season. We have both a weak La Nina and the warm water, thus, his forecast of 17-8-4 is above the average season of 14-7-3.

Regardless of average, this looks to be a busy year.

St. Patrick’s Day brought destructive tornadoes to the deep South and Thursday will be another day of severe weather, especially from Jackson, Mississippi, to Birmingham, Alabama. Here’s the convective outlook for Thursday and you’ll notice we are on the edge of the severe storm chance, so we’ll watch for that Thursday morning. In other words, big dips in the jet stream bring in cold, polar air smashing into warmer Pacific and Gulf air. You can see the jet stream for Thursday has that big dip and I circled the most dangerous area:AdJet StreamWhile we may see a few strong storms Thursday, the big show is for the Southeast U.S. If you have family or friends there, make sure they know what’s coming.

One of my viewers, Lourdes, wrote me this last Tuesday:Frank, What happened to your prediction of La Nina ruling this winter? You said it would be a dry, warm winter. It’s the warm water that heats the air above it. That hot air rises, condenses and forms clouds which produce rain. AdWe both know that it’s usually a roller coaster around here and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a cold snap or two.

Yesterday, NASA released the hot details of our record-tying 2020 which is literally in a ‘dead heat’ with 2016. However, that has switched now and cooler water is out there, known as La Nina. Speaking of which, What’s up with La Nina? The red line below is the model consensus for La Nina and it’s below that middle black line. No changes in La NIna until summerUnfortunately, that is also the height of hurricane season and with traffic snarling again, look for a warm 2021.

Australia has sweltered through its fourth-hottest year on record despite the usually cooling impact in recent months of the La Nina climate pattern, the nations weather bureau said on Friday, Jan. 8, 2021. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft,File)CANBERRA – Australia sweltered through its fourth-hottest year on record last year despite the recent return of the usually cooling La Nina climate pattern, the nation’s weather bureau said on Friday. La Nina, the cooler flipside of the better known El Nino, was declared in the Pacific Ocean in September. La Nina occurs when equatorial trade winds become stronger, changing ocean surface currents and drawing up cooler deep water. The hottest temperature in Australia for 2020 was 48.9 degrees Celsius (120 degrees Fahrenheit) recorded at the height of the wildfire emergency at Penrith in New South Wales state on Jan. 4.

Houston, TX – Welcome to 2021 and, at least for now, the fog has been limited, although with a warmer than normal month ahead we’re likely to get into that pretty soon. Our average temps for January are 64° for highs and 45° for lows, but you can see from the 30 day outlook this month that we’re expect ABOVE average temps (not that anyone is surprised anymore). La Nina UpdateThe La Nina pattern you’ve heard so much about is stronger than ever. Interestingly, the La Nina effect doesn’t appear to be much of a player for the eastern U.S.And La Nina is here to stay through the end of spring. La Nina is here to stay for a whileSo keep a sweater handy for those cooler than normal nights.

NOAA has released their winter outlook for the United States and the forecast hinges on La Niña, that cooler than normal Pacific water which tends to produce dry, warm weather for us. El Niño on the other hand brings in wetter, cooler winters. Here’s a look at the current sea surface temperature anomalies, and you can see that huge blue I’ve circled below:La Nina is definitely in charge! However, with the continuing dryness into winter, developing drought for the eastern half of our state is forecast:Developing Drought forecast for SE TexasEnjoy our “winter” weekend, especially tonight! FrankEmail me and follow me on Facebook!

Two-thirds of the United States should get a warmer than normal winter, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted. Only Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, the Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota, will get a colder than normal winter, forecasters said. The rest of the nation will likely be closer to normal, NOAA said. Judah Cohen, a winter weather specialist for the private firm Atmospheric Environmental Research, sees a harsher winter for the Northeast than NOAA does. But he said La Nina is the strongest indicator among several for what drives winter weather.

As a hot high pressure center continues to bake much of the state of Texas, forest service officials from Texas A & M are concerned that the combination of continued dry weather, drought conditions and expected confidence in seeing a La Nina pattern set up for the southern United States could place Texas in a hot spot for wildfire development late this summer. Conditions remain very dry across much of the Hill CountryAreas that are most susceptible to wildfire developmentOne thing forecasters are also watching as we head into the late summer and fall is the increasingly confident forecast that much of the southern half of the US will be under the influence of a strong La Nina pattern going into the Fall. For Texas, a La Nina pattern generally leads to a warmer and drier Fall and Winter as the jet stream from Canada stays further north into the Plains and we miss out on the cooler, wetter storms that come during that period. If that continues, the late summer/early fall wildfire season could be off to a quick start. Something to watch as we head into September!