Welcome to 2021 and, at least for now, the fog has been limited. However, with a warmer than normal month ahead, we’re likely to get into that pretty soon.
Our highs are running above normal today as we head into the low 70s and will again tomorrow! Our average temps for January are 64° for highs and 45° for lows, but you can see from the 30-day outlook this month that we expect ABOVE average temps (not that anyone is surprised anymore).
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Specifically, we have around a 50% chance for above-normal temperatures this month.
Rainfall may be a bit above average, which isn’t a lot actually. We only average between 3 and 4 inches this month. The 30-day outlook has us slightly above that:
And if you look at the American Model through January 20th, you’ll see a number of well-spaced storm systems coming through (specifically this Wednesday and again Sunday then again next week):
You’ll see the showers that come through are on the move, so for now, I’m not expecting any flood events this month. Some good solid showers will help keep us out of drought.
La Niña Update
The La Niña pattern you’ve heard so much about is stronger than ever. Look how cooler below-normal the water is in the Pacific Ocean. I’ve circled that in red:
This cooler water usually results in less precipitation for the southern part of the nation, thus we’re only looking for an average month of rainfall or a bit above. Interestingly, the La Niña effect doesn’t appear to be much of a player for the Eastern U.S.
And La Niña is here to stay through the end of spring. You can see that red line (the model consensus) is below the average (middle black line) until late May or early June.
So keep a sweater handy for those cooler-than-normal nights. Bottom line is that I’m not looking for any snow or ice storms in Houston this month, which is usually a good thing. I would, however, keep an eye out for foggy mornings.
Frank