Houston – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their offical Winter Outlook for the 2021-2022 winter season. The report shows data calling for a La Nina influenced conditions for the second straight winter season. For us in Texas and most of the South, that means above average winter temperatures through the winter months. The graphic below shows a snapshot of who will see a warmer than normal winter:

US Winter Temperature Outlook:

The biggest influence of the above average temperatures will be felt across the Southeast US, including here in Southeast Texas. While it is too early to say exactly how warm we’ll be this winter, this shows the general trend that we may be dealing with a mild winter including the holidays! The Pacific Northwest, conversely, will see cooler than average conditions, along with most of Alaska.

US Winter Precipitation Outlook:

As you might expect, if much of the Southern US is going to see a warmer than normal winter, it will likely mean that we will stay drier than normal as well. That could become a real issue for parts of the desert Southwestern US and West Coast which have been abnormally dry for more than a year now.

Even with these conditions, we can receive heavy rain events with cold fronts and other systems that will move across the US, however, it does usually indicate that statistically, we will see less than the average number of big weather events throughout the winter.

One of the biggest reasons for this pervasive pattern is because we will be in a La Nina pattern for the second straight winter season. If you would like to learn more about La Nina and what that means for weather patterns in the US, check out this blog story from KPRC2 Chief Meteorologist, Frank Billingsley: https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2021/10/15/more-la-nina-trouble-for-texas/