Just when the hurricane season seems to finally wind down, a Hurricane Nicole will show up and remind you that the season officially lasts to Nov. 30!
I blogged last Friday right here about late season and off-season tropical systems and every month can see something. Although long-term global models have less confidence the farther out they go, the guidance from the GFS (American Model) takes us now to Nov. 30, without anymore tropical activity:
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The EUROPEAN model only goes out 10 days, but it too shows a quiet trend:
One of the obvious reasons for the season finally ending is the ocean waters beginning to cool down. You can see that especially in the tropical Atlantic this is true:
Yet the Caribbean stays warm pretty much all year thanks to the loop current. Right now, temperatures there are running 84 to 86 degrees, well above the needed 80 degrees to get tropical systems going. What’s stopping them from forming? Wind shear! Look at all those red lines below indicating high winds that would tear apart developing storms:
So while our tropical season really never got started this year and certainly ended by early October, it looks like the rest of those threatened by these storms can rest easy for now!
Frank