HOUSTON – I spent some time with Robbie Berg, chief of the Hurricane Specialist Unit. This group creates the hurricane forecast you see from the National Hurricane Center. We cover topics of which hurricane model is the best, forecasting rapid intensification, how the hurricane hunters make a forecast better and how even the perfect forecast won’t save lives.
Robby Berg is joining me. He is the chief of the Hurricane Specialist Unit. Now, first of all, what does that even mean?
Robbie:
We have a team of 10 forecasters at the Hurricane Center that are termed hurricane specialists. These are the folks that are making the forecast of where the storm is going to go, how big it’s going to get, how strong it’s going get, and the different hazards that come with it. And so right now, I’m the acting chief of that branch.
Anthony:
You’ve done this since 2008, which tells me you’re one of the top minds when it comes to hurricane forecasting.
Robbie:
We have several forecasters in that team that had been at the Hurricane Center for quite a while But uh, yeah, I’m one of them. I’ve been in that unit since 2008. Forecasting hurricanes for about 14 years now.
Anthony:
One of the things I often get asked is, “Which model is best when it comes to forecasting hurricanes?” and I always say, “I don’t look at it that way. I always look at what the Hurricane Center says.” Because they are people like yourself who have been doing this for so many years. They put all the models together with all the data together. They give the best forecast.” You agree with that assessment?
Robbie:
That’s exactly right. There is no one perfect model. We look at several models four or five even more models at one time. And with the years of expertise that we’ve been doing this, we know which models do well in different situations. And that’s what it helps us to make a good forecast and over the long run. The Hurricane Center forecast cannot be beat.
Anthony:
I agree with that. And in all the years that you’ve done this, does any storm ever surprise you?
Robbie:
You know every storm is unique, and they offer things that you may not expect. But you expect the unexpected, in a sense. We think of Ian last year that rapid intensification just before hitting landfall in Florida, that was a little bit of a surprise, but we know storms can do that.
Anthony:
Is this the No. 1 thing that happens with hurricanes, rapid intensification? I know going back like even 10 years ago, you just couldn’t predict rapid intensification. And now I think it’s a lot better. But it’s not the one thing -- that it’s like the biggest thing -- you have to watch for that the models may miss?
Robbie:
Rapid intensification comes with a bag of issues. Let’s say it’s not just a storm getting stronger but that means that you’re getting probably more storm surge on the coast because of the strength. Sometimes after rapid intensification, a storm actually starts to increase in size, spread out as well. That will make the rainfall worse, that will make the storm surge worse. So yeah, it’s one of those phenomena with a hurricane that has been getting better for us to forecast. We’ve been getting better with that. But it still causes a lot of problems when it happens right at landfall.
Anthony:
We’re talking about the hurricane hunters today. They’re behind you. And I didn’t even know this. Something I learned today, that it’s only been over the past three or four years that the data has gone directly to the models. Before it went to you guys. You guys worked with it. But now it’s going to the models. How much does that help with the forecasting?
Robbie:
Immensely, when they’re gathering data in the storm and even up and around the storm all that information, the temperature, the humidity, and the winds and all gets fed into the computer models, which makes them even better. That gives us better tools to make the forecast even better. It’s a lot of downstream positive impacts that help all of us get the better forecast.
Anthony:
What’s the future because honestly, hurricane forecasting has gotten so much better. As far as where the storms are going, I think intensity forecasting has even gotten better. What’s the future?
Robbie:
I really think the future is getting people to understand their risks. We can make a perfect forecast. But people don’t often know what to do with that perfect forecast. They don’t know if they live in a flood zone. They don’t know if they’re immune. We’re prone to storm surges. It’s not just the physical science we’re worried about, but it’s also the social sciences making sure that people understand what to do with that forecast when it’s given to them.
