You probably know that just as the 2023 hurricane season began, so did Tropical Depression Two (above). I’ve blogged before about Tropical Depression One and how the hurricane year actually got started in January. To be sure, Tropical Depressions aren’t counted in the seasonal forecasts -- those are just for storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes. Yesterday the forecast for TD2 was to become our first storm “Arlene,” and that happened today.
There is too much wind and dry air in the southern Gulf of Mexico for this depression to really get going. Still, rain over south Florida continues and so do flood advisories through the evening.
You might have also noticed the 2023 forecasts coming in all over the place, from a below normal season to normal to above-normal. Wouldn’t it be great if they were all in one place? There is! The University of Barcelona collects all the hurricane forecasts from universities, private industries, and government agencies and puts them on a very cool, interactive page for everyone to view. Here’s what it looks like:
Green colors are university forecasts, purple are from private industry and blue are from government agencies. But when you go to the page, you can click on the different groups to find out WHAT KIND of model they are using -- hybrid, dynamical, statistical, machine. You can also click on the colored bar for a specific range and number of how many hurricanes are forecast this year. In that regard, I’m not sure the forecasts are much help! You’ll see that the number is anywhere from three hurricanes to 20 hurricanes! Talk about a range from not much to too many!
So, herewith, the link: University of Barcelona Hurricane Predictions Scroll down a bit to find that graph and have fun! Too bad school is out because teachers would love this one! This is a very cool site and you’ll enjoy, I promise!
Have a safe, warm summer weekend (yes, meteorological summer has begun and I’m not arguing anymore about that one -- call it “late spring” if you want)!
Frank
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