Models, models, models. Looking at our freezing temperatures next Tuesday and Wednesday you’ll find models varying quite a bit. Hopefully they will come more in line the closer we get to the event, but safe to say we are in for the coldest weather we’ve experienced since December 2022. In fact, all of 2023 didn’t have a single freezing temperature in Houston! So while it’s been a while we’ve had enough cold in 2021 and 2022 to keep the memory alive, that’s for sure.
I put together the National Weather Service forecast for Monday through Wednesday along with the American Model, European Model and Canadian Model. These numbers are for Bush/IAH. Here’s my chart below and then we’ll discuss:
First, the high Monday is a little misleading because it will happen in the early morning hours and temperatures fall from there keeping our waking hours on Monday in the 30s. You see the National Weather Service calling for 22° Tuesday morning in line with the Canadian, but far colder than the American and European. I can only surmise that the two global models are keeping it warmer because it’s going to be very windy Monday and Tuesday....North Winds of 20-25mph. Those winds can certainly drive the arctic air south, but wind also mixes the air so that whatever heat is in place can help keep temperatures up. Obviously, the Canadian and NWS don’t buy into that.
Tuesday afternoon/evening stays cold, and then we have good agreement on Wednesday morning and that is when winds calm down to 6mph, thus allowing more radiational cooling: a calm, clear, cold morning. So Wednesday being the colder morning stands to reason. Saying that, the very cold Canadian model doesn’t stand to reason and as a major outlier I think we can discount that 11 degrees, but I always have an eyebrow raised.
Wednesday afternoon everyone seems to agree on a nice warming trend.
Given Wednesday morning seems to be a sure thing, here is the European for all of us around here with plenty of low 20s, but not as many teens:
As to freezing drizzle, the National Weather Service forecasts that for Monday night. The European has backed off winter precipitation, but any light rain could freeze on roads and bridges, so take caution driving Monday!
We’ll continue to track these model forecasts and give you the best forecast for the cold weather coming. In the meantime, get those Whataburger cups ready to go!
Frank
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