High Pressure is bringing us this cold weekend but that High moves east by Sunday opening the door for the southerly Jet Stream to kick back our way bringing wave after wave of Pacific moisture. Blame El Nino is you like, but the bottom line is we need to stay weather aware and umbrella ready! Here is the European rainfall model for next week:
The American Model agrees:
So the forecast for rain looks pretty well-established. The question is just HOW MUCH rain? The models do spread amounts out fairly evenly for the first half of the week: an average of 2″ on Monday, another 2″ Tuesday, 2″ Wednesday and 1-2″ Thursday into Friday. In total, the American model forecasts 6-10″ of rain for our area next week while the European forecasts a maximum of 9″. Here’s that graphic:
The humans in the room are forecasting a total of 5-7″ of rain from Monday to Friday. Here’s a look at that forecast:
As you’d expect, the Flood Risk is there--Moderate for Monday and (for now) Low for Tuesday:
Take note--we usually have street flooding with 1-2″ of rain per hour, so if you are experiencing heavy downpours during the week make sure to watch out of that. In addition, don’t be fooled that we can’t have flood issues Thursday or Friday. After all, we may be able to handle a couple of days of heavy rain but that accumulative affect means that it won’t take as much rain to cause flooding later in the week! I can tell you from experience that it would be great if Mother Nature spread the rain out evenly over the period, but that seems to never happen. We get our fair share of deluges in events like this!
We’ll continue to monitor closely. Here’s our 10 Day Planning Forecast as of this morning:
In the meantime, have a great weekend and GO TEXANS!!!
Frank
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