What’s wrong with the cone
The National Hurricane Center has been using the cone since the early 2000s and it’s been in existence, in one form or another, for more than 70 years. But it is probably the most misunderstood part of a hurricane forecast. People think the cone is showing the storm getting bigger. Or that there won’t be any effects outside the cone.
For many years, meteorologists have complained the cone needs to be changed, but it’s the most well-known part of a hurricane forecast.
How the cone will look this year
At Operation Sierra Storm, a weather conference in South Lake Tahoe, Jamie Rhome, the Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Center unveiled the new look.
While it’s difficult to see in this image, you’ll notice the picture to the right has more color for the state of Florida. The cone is still being used but it’s being de-emphasized. What is being highlighted are the risks and warnings.
Note about the images: Because the National Hurricane Center hasn’t officially announced this change, the only images I can use are from Jamie’s talk at the conference.
Why the change? We talk too much about the cone
The new forecast look is designed to show the warnings first! It’s a “hazard first” approach. Rhome believes hurricane track forecasting has gotten about as good as it’s going to get. He now wants us to focus on the risks of the storm.
Do you see how the hazards are now on the cone below? The cone is still present but diminished.
The ultimate goal
The cone has served its purpose. Track errors are 30%-45% lower than they were five years ago. Intensity errors are 20%-40% lower, and emergency managers have an increased lead time of 12 hours when making evacuation decisions. Rhome sees the meteorologist’s role as a risk communicator. The hurricane forecast should be seen as a risk product. After you watch a forecast, you should know what is expected to happen where you live.
The below image shows the dangers outside the cone. The cone is small compared to the wind, tropical storm and hurricane threats.
This new cone will be unveiled with the first storm of the 2024 hurricane season. It’s important to note that this is what is known as an “experimental product.” That means it will not be included with what you see TV stations show around the country. However, the KPRC 2 Storm Tracker Team knows how to add the risks and impacts to the graphics we show. You’ll see them this upcoming season.
Do you like what the Hurricane Center is doing? Leave your comment below or write me on X, Facebook or Instagram at: @kprc2anthony!
