The newest hurricane horror-cast came out yesterday, this one from Colorado State University: 23 tropical storms, 11 of those becoming hurricanes and 5 of those becoming major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). Compare that to the average of 14-7-3 and the season ahead is looking a lot like the very busy 2020 season when we had 30 tropical systems form.
RELATED: COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST IS HERE!
In fact, if you consider that from June 1 to November 30 is 26 weeks and the forecast is for 23 storms then that’s almost a tropical storm or hurricane every week this summer! More likely what we’ll see is a very busy August-September when the hurricane map can look like this...four storms all going at once in 2018:
Or 2020, which was a mind-blower. That season had us coming and going. Look at September 14 that year when we had two storms forming (the yellow and orange areas) amidst five more named tropical cyclones at the same time!
Of course, even the revered CSU forecast makes the strongest of points: it only takes one storm to change your world. To that end, they have also issued a chart which forecasts the chances of landfall for tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes. This, to me, is really the important part of the forecast and it tends to be ignored by popular media. After all, we had 28 storms in 2005 and not one hit Texas (although RITA arguably caused as much havoc).
In general, CSU is almost doubling our chances for tropical impacts this year.
More specifically, our normal chance of a tropical storm impacting Houston is 29% and for Galveston is 34%. CSU predicts that this year we go to a 45% and 51% chance. For a Hurricane impact in Houston, the chance goes from 16% to 25% and for Galveston from 19% to 30%. Finally, our odds in Houston of a MAJOR hurricane impact increase from 4% to 7% this year while Galveston goes up from 6% to 9%. The real take away is that our odds have jumped considerably to be a hit by a storm. And that is really all that matters.
The full list of impact and the odds is extensive and includes all the Texas coastal counties along with the rest of the country and up to Canada. You can find that list right here. It also gives a count of just how many storms we’ve had in different areas in the last 140 years.
Enjoy the weekend and fingers crossed for Monday’s Eclipse that is still likely to face a cloud challenge!
Frank
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