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Don’t look now, but there’s trouble in the tropics: Here’s what it means for the Houston area

High chance of development in the Gulf of Mexico early week.

As we head into mid-June, the Caribbean is waking up. Waters are abnormally warm, and there are two tropical disturbances the KPRC 2 Storm Tracker team is monitoring, one of which is of special interest in Texas.

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Last week, Florida experienced days of rain that led to historic flooding. That system has since dissipated but thee is another area of development off the eastern coast of Florida that has a 30% chance for development over the next 7 days.

As for the Gulf of Mexico, the Bay of Campeche has been a zone of concern. The National Hurricane Center says there is a 70% chance for development with this system over the next 7 days and a 50% chance for development over the next 2 days. If it forms, it will be called Alberto.

Two areas of potential development.

This system will bring days of rainfall to the Houston area starting Monday with the heaviest ending Wednesday night. SE Texas sees lingering moisture Thursday but the heaviest shifts southwest.

Days of heavy rain, will help cool temperatures.
Center of storm stays south but bands of rain will push into Texas.

The center of the storm will likely stay south in Mexico but it’s bands will bring impressive rainfall totals. The SE Texas coast line into southern Harris County can pick up 6 to 8 inches of rain while areas north and west of I-10 4 to 6 inches over the next 7 days. Models differ in the track of the potential tropical system so be aware that rainfall forecast may change.

Highest rain totals will be near the coast.

The main impact is flooding, Monday through Wednesday there is a flood risk. Remember to never drive through flood waters. Winds will also increase 30 to 40 mph gust and coastal areas will experience rough surf.

2/4 Flood Risk Monday as tropical shower and storms begin to move into SE Texas.
Tuesday there is a Moderate Flood risk (3/4) for Harris County into coastal communities.
Flood risk on Wednesday is Slight which is 2/4. Avoid flooded roads.

The development of these tropical disturbances is a good reminder that hurricane season is here. Check out the stories below to make sure you and your family are prepared.


About the Author
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I am grateful for the opportunity to share the captivating tales of weather, climate, and science within a community that has undergone the same transformative moments that have shaped my own life.