Tracking the Gulf of Mexico with AI:
Tropical moisture moves into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 50% chance to become our first named storm this season. If it becomes a tropical storm it would get the name Alberto. One thing we’ll be watching this hurricane season is how well the AI (artificial intelligence) weather model performs. With this first tropical system it’s already making waves! Of all the weather models it is the farthest north, making a direct hit as a tropical storm in south Texas on Wednesday June 19th. On Thursday, the model was aimed at Corpus Christi. The two images are below.
How the AI model is different:
The images above are from the AI European Model. It was tested last year, and this season everyone with access to the European model can keep track how it does. What makes the AI model different is it uses machine learning instead of thermodynamics. AI uses large datasets of past weather and identifies the complex weather patterns in our atmosphere. Basically, it is looking at the current weather pattern and comparing it to historical data. It then predicts the future based on the patterns it sees.
This is different than the other weather models that simulate the physics and dynamics of our atmosphere using complex mathematical equations.
Let’s compare:
The European model you see below is from Friday night June 14th. It has a tropical storm hitting eastern Mexico early Thursday morning June 20th. It is 400 miles south of the AI model at the same time.
The American model (GFS) is much weaker and much further south. I’ve drawn in the low so it’s easier to see where the storm is Wednesday morning. It is 650 miles farther south than the AI model and 350 miles south of the European model.
A note about all weather models:
What I learned from meteorology school is, “All weather models are wrong. But they are useful for guidance.” Looking at all three of these models I can tell you a storm system is moving in to the Gulf of Mexico. The farther south it is the less of a chance it has at become a tropical storm. The farther north it moves it will be stronger and also affect SE Texas more. The specific details of how strong it will be and how much rain we’ll get in Houston is dependent on its ultimate track. And we’ll only know that by tracking it every day. And that is what we do for you. Stay tuned, more updates coming this weekend.
