Tonight’s Forecast
This evening will be muggy and buggy! Temperatures will struggle to cool down with overnight lows only dropping to the lower-80s.
4th Of July Forecast
The 4th is firecracker hot! Temperatures will top out near the century mark but it will feel up to 110 with the humidity! The National Weather Service has put SE Texas under a heat advisory until 7PM. Stay hydrated!
Thankfully we do not have any burn bans in place for SE Texas for the first time in two years on the 4th of July! Make sure you check with your county before you shoot off any fireworks.
Hurricane Beryl’s Official Track:
The National Hurricane Center keeps Beryl making landfall in the Yucatan by Friday morning.
After Beryl passes through the Yucatan it will lose strength. Next it will push into the Bay of Campeche where it should restrengthen into a hurricane before making landfall on Sunday.
No matter what path Beryl takes rip current risk will be high through the weekend.
What to expect in SE Texas:
We’ll have a better idea of the extract track of Beryl over the next 24 hours. Consensus for now is that we’ll see Beryl track into northern Mexico or extreme south Texas by Sunday evening. If this track verifies the heaviest rain will west and south of Houston. Through Saturday we will only see coastal impacts. Folks who saw coastal flooding with Alberto can certainly expect to see that again. We’ll have high surf and swells and an elevated rip current risk. Only starting Sunday we could see some outer rain bands and higher winds (but check back in a few days for a more updated forecast).
American Model Landfall:
Below is the American model which has shifted to be more aligned with the EURO’s placement and the NHC’s placement in far northern Mexico on Sunday. The only thing they are NOT consistent with is the timing, the American model has it making landfall Sunday morning, and the Euro is Sunday night (12 hours difference).
European Model Landfall:
In contrast. the European model wants to take Beryl into the Gulf a little further south down the Yucatan and keep it weaker as a tropical storm or low-end category one hurricane before landfall into north Mexico, just south of Brownsville. This would mean less direct impacts for Houston and our coastline, aside from some coastal flooding and minor storm surge.
10-Day Forecast:
The closer Beryl is to SE Texas the more rain we’ll get. The farther south Beryl tracks, our impacts will be low. For now I’m going with a 40% chance of tropical rain Sunday and 50% chance on Monday with storms chances Saturday and Tuesday too.
