The National Hurricane Center has just named Ernesto a category 1 hurricane. This is the third hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season after Beryl and Debby.
Hurricane Ernesto now has sustained winds at 75 mph with even higher gusts. The hurricane force winds extend 35 miles from the center of the storm.
It has been making a shift in direction towards the north so it’s official movement as of 10AM is now to the NW at 16 mph. The forecast for Ernesto takes it to the north towards Bermuda over the next several days. There will be no direct impacts to the US mainland, however, there will be elevated surf and a high rip current risk for the east coast through the weekend.
The forecast has Ernesto strengthening into a major hurricane (category 3) by Friday. This will be the second major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The first was Beryl which was a category 5 when it hit the Lesser Antilles.
We expect Ernesto to continue to strengthen as it moves through the warm Atlantic waters. In order for a tropical system to strengthen we only need water temperatures to be at 78°. Where Ernesto is moving water temperatures are in the mid-80s which is plenty of heat to support tropical development.
One thing you might notice about the water temperatures is just how hot is is in the Gulf. We have been setting heat records all year in the Atlantic. Thankfully we do not have anything in the forecast for the Gulf over the next week. The warm temperatures are alarming for any system that would enter the Gulf.
We’ll continue to keep you posted on Hurricane Ernesto and any other tropical developments both here online but also on air on KPRC news.
