The National Hurricane Center has been monitoring three systems in the Atlantic for possible development. The good news is the low pressure system we’ve been tracking off the coast now has a 0% chance of development as it is expected to move onshore early Tuesday morning. This does not change the fact that it has brought record rainfall to Galveston, but it is confirmation this is guaranteed to not be our next named system.
The Hurricane Center is also tracking a cluster of storms by the Lesser Antilles that are currently producing thunderstorms and gusty winds. This disorganized cluster of storms will continue to push to the northwest. As it enters the western Caribbean Sea, the environmental conditions will be much more favorable to tropical development.
It is possible we could have a tropical depression form late this week (or over the weekend) in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Right now it looks like this system if it forms would move into Mexico.
The final area for possible development is in the far Eastern Atlantic Ocean. This system is the only one we are watching that could form in the next two days, but the chance is low. There’s only a 10% chance this will develop in the next 2 days, and a 40% chance in the next week as it moves into a favorable area for development. A tropical depression is possible in the next day or two, with heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible for the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days.
This system has just left Africa so it still has a lot of time before we have to worry about it.
Although we are currently off the hook for any tropical systems, the active Atlantic is a good reminder that the peak of hurricane season is just around the corner! The statistical peak is on September 10th.
Make sure you stay up to date with our forecast through the hurricane season. To be best prepared, check out our 2024 Hurricane & Flood Survival Guide.