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Flood threat southwest of Houston Tuesday

A cold front is on the 10 day forecast

The highest flood risk Tuesday is along Matagorda Bay. (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)

HOUSTON – We saw record setting rainfall along the coast Monday and more coastal showers are possible over the next 72 hours.

Check out our current radar below:

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Tonight’s Forecast:

Tonight there is a chance for showers and storms, but it’s primarily for locations close to the coast. Temperatures will drop through the 80s and into the mid-70s by Tuesday morning.

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Tuesday’s Forecast

As the kiddos are going back to school after a long weekend temperatures will be in the 70s. There’s a chance for rain during the day with highs in the upper-80s.

There is a chance for rain with highs in the upper-80s. (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)

While most of the rain chances for the next few days will remain strongest along the coast, there is a chance to see some isolated storms to pop across the metro by later this afternoon for the next couple of days.\

The flood threat Tuesday is to our southwest.

The highest flood risk Tuesday is along Matagorda Bay. (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)

Tracking The Tropics:

The good news is the low pressure system we’ve been tracking off the coast now has a 0% chance of development as it is expected to move onshore early Tuesday morning. This does not change the fact that it has brought record rainfall to Galveston, but it is confirmation this is guaranteed to not be our next named system.

This system will not develop. (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)

The Hurricane Center is also tracking a cluster of storms by the Lesser Antilles that are currently producing thundersorms and gusty winds. This disorganized cluster of storms will continue to push to the northwest. As it enters the western Caribbean Sea, the environmental conditions will be much more favorable to tropical development.

There is a medium chance of development in the next week. (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)

It is possible we could have a tropical depression form late this week (or over the weekend) in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Right now it looks like this system if it forms would move into Mexico.

Look at the closed circulation north of Honduras. (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)

The final area for possible development is in the far Eastern Atlantic Ocean. This system is the only one we are watching that could form in the next two days, but the chance is low. There’s only a 10% chance this will develop in the next 2 days, and a 40% chance in the next week as it moves into a favorable area for development. A tropical depression is possible in the next day or two, with heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible for the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days.

This system has just left Africa so it still has a lot of time before we have to worry about it.

There is a low chance for development in the next two days. (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)

10-day Forecast:

We have daily chances for showers and storms through the late week. This is not a total washout, but instead on-and-off showers and storms especially for our coastal areas. A cold front will try to clear Texas late week, if it is successful expect cooler mornings in the 60s by early next week!

Rain chances are with us through the end of the week. (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)

About the Authors
Justin Stapleton headshot

Meteorologist, craft beer guru, dad to Maya and Ella and a sock and cheese addict.

Caroline Brown headshot

Meteorologist, 6th generation Texan, country music lover, patio seeker

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