Invest 90L:
Thursday evening the National Hurricane Center designated the area of low pressure responsible for our rain this week, Invest 90L. When this happens tropical models start running on the low. The area is being investigated. It has a 10% chance of becoming our next named storm in the next seven days. Our cool front that arrives late Friday moves this south so I don’t expect anything to form this weekend.
Low #2:
Another area of low pressure in the Caribbean moves into the Bay of Campeche this Saturday. This also has a low chance of development in the next seven days at 20%.
Don’t focus on the odds:
While both of these lows have minimal chances of forming into a tropical storm or hurricane, my experience is to not take whatever is in the Gulf this time of year lightly. We are in the peak of hurricane season, the Gulf waters are incredibly warm and wind shear is low. What is lacking is organization. But, these lows could rapidly get a tight surface circulation next week.
Two become one:
As our cool front moves the low near Galveston south, the other low starts to drift north. It’s not so much that the low pressure areas combine into one. But it’s more the moisture associated with these disorganized areas combine into one area of tropical rain. This is the point where things get interesting. Our weekend cool front stalls and starts to drift north late Monday. This allows the tropical rain to move north too. There are a few scenarios possible at this point.
- It remains disorganized and we simply get more rain Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. This rain could cause flooding.
- A tropical storm forms and concentrates the heaviest rain near it’s center.
- It’s not out of the question we get rapid intensification and a hurricane forms. This has happened in the past. Hurricane Humberto in 2007 went from a 30mph center to a 90mph category 1 in less than 24-hours. The chances this becomes a hurricane as of Thursday night is 10%. If this happens it would occur Wednesday.
Early modeling on Invest 90L:
Because this was designated an invest Thursday evening, there are not many tropical models running yet. But the front could move the low southeast, south or southwest. The front stalls in the Gulf and slowly drifts north next week. The TABM which is from the American Model shows the low moving north too.
Bottom line:
After Friday’s rain, enjoy our weekend weather. It will be dry with low humidity. But make sure you have our Storm Track 2 App and watch KPRC 2 this weekend. We’ll update you with changes as they happen. The days to watch are Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
