Tracking the Gulf this weekend:
LATEST UPDATE: Sunday Tropics Update: Francine forming today or tomorrow
HOUSTON, Texas – Two things are happening at once in the Gulf of Mexico. The low pressure that plagued us with rain all week has been pushed south from a cool front that moved through Southeast Texas Saturday. Another area of low pressure is brewing in the Bay of Campeche this weekend. This low travels north and will “collect” the moisture from the other low.
As of Saturday night, the low has a 80% chance over the next two days and 90% chance over the next seven days of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm early week.
What happens next?
Spaghetti models continue to show a northward movement close to south Texas. Models are showing good agreement that the storm will be pulled northeast, with a potential landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border.
There is still a layer of uncertainty about the exact path this storm will take but no matter what happens with this system strengthening or remaining a large area of rain, our biggest impacts and threats will be rough surf and the potential for flooding. Here are possible rain amounts next week.
What you need to know right now:
First, enjoy the weekend. Our first cool front of the season is gracing Houston with sunshine and low humidity. But it’s short-lived. Download our Storm Tracker 2 app to get updates on the forecast when you can’t tune into KPRC 2 on TV. For now, the time when the tropical rain will arrive along the Texas coast is Tuesday through Thursday. If it becomes a tropical storm, it will get the name Francine. The chance of it becoming a tropical depression is high, but the chance it forms into a hurricane is 10% as of Saturday.
Can it really strengthen into a hurricane?
Next week is the peak of hurricane season. The Gulf waters are warm, the wind shear is low. This is a prime environment for a system like this to intensify into a hurricane. The chances right now of becoming a hurricane are 10%. But there are two models that have this strengthening into a category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm. The ICON, a German model which did an excellent job with Beryl and the Artificial Intelligence model. The AL model has performed poorly this hurricane season. But it’s been consistent showing a strong storm near us for two weeks straight. The model images are below. Both are heading toward Louisiana.