What’s new:
Monday morning, Tropical Storm Francine formed.
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for parts of the Mexican Gulf Coast as the system is forecasted to come close to land before curving off to the northeast.
Where it’s going:
The tropical tracks have the storm in the Gulf moving generally north Sunday and Monday. Tuesday, it is predicted to make a turn to the right, heading toward us and Louisiana. This track reminds me of Hurricane Nicholas in 2021. Nicholas had a big impact on Matagorda Bay and our coastal cities but not much of an impact inland. Nicholas was also a category one hurricane that intensified quickly. Please do not take this as what is going to happen, but this is what it looks like on Sunday.
Impacts to southeast Texas:
Our impacts depend on two things. First, Houston will get more rain if this remains disorganized or weak. If this strengthens to a strong tropical storm or hurricane, impacts will be closer to the center of the storm. Second, all of the current data suggests that our biggest impacts will be to our coastal cities because the center is expected to be closer to the coast. Notice the difference between the two Rain Total graphics. With the center near Matagorda, 5″ of rain is possible along our coast. If Louisiana gets a direct hit, our rain totals are much less.
What we need to prepare for now:
In its current state, we need to prepare for street flooding. Heavy rain could fall as early as Tuesday for southeast Texas. The days that flooding is possible are Tuesday and Wednesday. The farther west or left the center is, the more rain we’ll get. There will not be any flooding if this turns right early. The reason for this is we’ll be on the clean or weak side of the storm. The right-hand part of a storm is the dirty or strong side. With Beryl we were on the strong/dirty side.
Here is what I think:
If you’ve read this far down, you deserve to know what I think. Unless the track changes drastically when it becomes a depression or storm, Houston will not get much more than some rain Tuesday and Wednesday. I do think our coastal cities will feel impacts from gusty winds and dangerous seas. It’s too early to know what storm surge or tides will look like because we don’t have a formed system yet. However, as soon as this happens, I’ll let you know. Also, I think it will be a category one hurricane. There is dry air north of the low, but I don’t think it will prevent it from becoming a hurricane. The model prediction of this becoming a hurricane is 10%. I’m also adding the ICON, a German model, and the Artificial Intelligence model images below. Both of these have been consistent with timing and placement for more than a week. My next update coming tomorrow.
