Tuesday’s forecast, tracking Francine:
HOUSTON – On Tuesday night Tropical Storm Francine is getting better organized and stronger. Francine is expected to strengthen to a category 2 storm before making land in Louisiana. Intensification forecasts can routinely be off by one category in either direction. This means Francine could be a cat 3 or 1 when it makes land. The farthest Francine would track west is Sabine Pass. Southeast Texas will have impacts, mainly along our coastal cities. Remember, the forecast cone shows the forecast for the center of circulation and it includes historical error the past 10-years. There are impacts outside the cone.
Coastal impacts:
Even with a direct hit in Louisiana our coastal cities will be impacted. With the eye of the storm about 100 miles southeast of Galveston, strong winds will hit our coastal waters and coastal communities. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for areas along the coast, including Galveston Bay. The storm surge is expected to peak between 1 and 3 feet Wednesday morning. This surge will create coastal flooding. Low-lying roadways are most susceptible to this kind of storm surge. Some roads will be closed, like highway 87 in Bolivar. Do not drive through barricades and beach access in some areas will likely be blocked.
Rain:
Starting Tuesday morning showers and storms form along our coastal communities. The closer Francine is to us, the more rain we’ll get. Street flooding is possible if the storm is close.
Winds:
While the rain arrives Tuesday morning, strong winds arrive Tuesday night. The strongest winds are expected Wednesday morning. On it’s current track, the below images are the expected wind speeds, gusts and times of the strongest winds in SE Texas. These winds are tropical storm force and can easily take out power. Wind gusts near 50 mph can bring down trees.
The rest of the tropics:
There are two other tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean. These are tracking toward the Carolinas and may hit the east coast next week.
10-day Forecast:
Francine hitting Louisiana has us lowering our rain chances Wednesday. The rest of the week through the weekend is expected to be dry.
