HOUSTON – The Autumnal Equinox is Sunday morning, but if you step outside this weekend it will still feel like summer.
Today’s Forecast:
Today will be sunny, hot and humid with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. It will be another day of triple-digit “feels-like” temperatures. We’re starting to see more humidity moving back into the picture as well, so the sticky factor in your afternoon will start to go way up!
Summer Remains in Charge This Week:
A hot dome of high pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern for most of this week and into the coming weekend. Part of the culprit is a large mid-level high pressure ridge that is centered across much of Texas, largely influencing our weather pattern. The result of this pattern is called an Omega Block. Meaning that on either coast, the jet stream is dipping south so the hot high pressure dominating our weather is strengthened and forced up into the Central Plains.
Tracking the Tropics:
The tropics are the talk of the town as we’re beginning to track a tropical wave that may eventually get a little too close to home. This weekend, we’ll be watching a tropical wave that looks to position itself between the Yucatan and Cuba with a 60% chance of developing in the next 7 days.
So let’s talk about what we know vs what we don’t know. Since a storm hasn’t even formed yet, the modeling for what “may” form in terms of location, strength and path are way too early to put a reliable bullseye on.
One factor in whether it moves east or west will be how strong a trough in the jet stream is.
If it is weaker, it will push it to the west, meaning more potential problems for the Texas coast or Mexico. If the jet is stronger, it will sweep it to the east, keeping the path closer to Florida. There are still many questions about exactly whether it develops and, if it does, where it will go.
The American models continue to keep the potential storm away from the Texas coastline, instead guiding it between New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama. The final location of this storm (which will become HELENE if it forms), will continue to change so make sure to check back with us often this weekend.
While this would be ideal for Houston, the European model shows a turn to the west, which could mean more tropical trouble for us.
Houston remains under the influence of high pressure, which continues to block any significant moisture from building in.
So the bottom line is, we are still a few days away from having a starting position for the weather models to lock into and then go from there. Once they do, late this weekend, that will help to clean up some errors about “first guesses”, which is what we have for now. Be safe in the heat, keep track of the forecast, and we’ll keep updates fresh as we get more info!
10-day Forecast:
We stay dry. Highs will be in the 90s, but morning lows will be comfortable in the mid-70s! The start of fall is Sunday, but it will still feel like summer here in SE Texas.