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Tracking a cool front and a major hurricane this week in the Gulf

A cool front steers Helene away from Houston

The front blocks Helene from moving west (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)

Tropical Storm Helene expected to form Tuesday:

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HOUSTON – We are tracking the tropics and the next storm to form would get the name Helene. This should happen tomorrow. As of Monday night, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is getting organized in the Caribbean. On Wednesday, Helene moves into the Gulf of Mexico where it should rapidly intensify into a major hurricane before making landfall Thursday. The exceptionally warm Gulf Stream waters will significantly contribute to this intensification.

Forecast to become a tropical storm Tuesday (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)
Heading toward Florida (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)

What steers Helene toward Florida:

Helene poses a significant threat, currently forecasted to reach Category 3 status upon making landfall on Thursday. It will impact areas from Pensacola to Tampa, with a potential direct hit on Tallahassee or Gainesville. There’s also a possibility of Helene intensifying to a Category 4 storm. A cold front bringing rain to Houston over the next two days will block Helene’s westward movement, steering it toward Florida.

Western Florida expected to take a direct hit from a major hurricane (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)

Helene impacts on Florida:

The forecast cone indicates where the center of the storm is expected to make landfall, but impacts can extend well beyond that point. As we don’t have a defined storm as of Monday night, the cone may shift slightly, so areas like Tampa should prepare as if they are within it.

  1. Let’s starts with storm surge. Our partners at qrisq.com show an incredible storm surge where the center of the storm hits. In this forecast it is near Tallahassee with a 20′+ surge!
  2. The wind threat is large. Some of the tropical storm force winds may reach the east coast of Florida. The possibility exits of 110 mph plus winds at the center and to the right of the storm.
  3. Rainfall totals ranging from 3.5 to 7.5 inches fall along the storm’s centerline.
The cone represents where the center of the hurricane will hit (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)
From Qrisq.com (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)
Here is where the strongest winds are Wednesday, a day before the storm makes land (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)
7 1/2" of rain possible where the center of the storm hits (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)

The predicted path and strength of Helene highlight the importance of staying updated with the latest weather information. For real-time updates and to share your weather photos and videos, visit Click2Pins.


About the Author

Two-time Emmy award winning meteorologist and recipient of the 2022 American Meteorological Society’s award for Excellence in Science Reporting by a Broadcast Meteorologist.

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