Tropical Depression #18 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Rafael and is on the move across the western Caribbean.
Rafael currently has 45 mph winds and is moving north at 9 mph.
Rafael will continue northwest over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands through Tuesday. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Jamaica.
Cuba will begin to see impacts as early as Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, the system could upgrade to a Category 1 hurricane as it enters the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It is forecasted to weaken back to a tropical storm as it moves further into the Gulf.
Since we’re getting very late into the Atlantic tropical season, there are some factors that come into account to provide rough conditions as the storms get closer to the Gulf coast. One of them is a stronger wind shear, pictured below:
There is still a high level of uncertainty after the storm enters the Gulf, as can be seen by the wide forecast cone of uncertainty for the storm. Interests from the Texas Gulf Coast all the way to the Florida Panhandle should keep a close eye on this system.
Please stay connected as we could see changes to the forecast.
